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Bank of England and European Central Bank preview

This week’s meetings of the BoE and ECB will be those of banks content to sit and await developments for the time being.

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Bank of England to hold fast

No change is expected this time around from the Bank of England (BoE), having undertaken to hike rates last month. The mantra from the BoE remains ‘limited’ and ‘gradual’ when it comes to rate rises, following the path set by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Recent purchasing managers index (PMI) figures from the UK have been better for the construction and services sectors, but manufacturing remains under pressure. Wage data and gross domestic product (GDP) figures, however, have picked up, so it is not all doom and gloom where the UK economy is concerned.

But all this is a sideshow compared to Brexit. Until this uncertainty is removed the outlook remains clouded, and interest rates are likely to stay low, if not unchanged, as a result. With the outlook for monetary policy muted sterling’s main driver will be the Brexit headlines.

Bank of England meeting

An in-depth look at the Bank of England’s MPC
announcement – including its role in shaping the UK
economy, and how this affects traders.


ECB stays the course

Here too, ‘no change’ is still the order of the day. The bank continues to expect an orderly exit from its quantitative easing (QE) programme, with the ructions caused by the Italian government yet to have an impact. It looks very unlikely that the European Central Bank (ECB) will make any adjustments to its programme in order to appease Rome.

GDP and inflation projections will remain unchanged, although one point to watch will be core inflation projections, which ING thinks are currently subject to ‘extreme optimism’ regarding a move to 1.9% from the current 1%.

Barring a major change, the bank will hold fast at this meeting, sticking with the plan to end QE by the end of the year. The bank will stress it remains alive to threats to the outlook, but a steady approach remains the likely outcome of this meeting, and indeed others later in 2018.

European Central Bank meeting

Learn about the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council announcement – including how it affects the European economy and financial markets.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. International accounts are offered by IG Markets Limited in the UK (FCA Number 195355), a juristic representative of IG Markets South Africa Limited (FSP No 41393). South African residents are required to obtain the necessary tax clearance certificates in line with their foreign investment allowance and may not use credit or debit cards to fund their international account.