FTSE 100: Next share price flirts with August 1 ½ year high
Next share price is in the process of breaking through resistance, could extend gains.
Next beat estimates in Q2
Next had much better sales than anticipated for the second quarter (Q2) (April to June) of the year. In just the first seven weeks of the quarter, sales for Next climbed 9.3%. This greatly surpasses the company's own prediction of a 5% decrease in sales for the entire quarter.
The increase in sales is likely due to nice weather, which often leads to more shopping, and a rise in real wages since April, which means people have more money to spend.
But, there are potential problems. Growth should be driven by improving sales, while consumer spending in the UK has remained fairly stable.
However, issues such as rising gilt yields, which could increase the cost of borrowing and spending for consumers, could pose a threat to future sales.
Technical analysis on the Next share price
Next’s share price, which has risen by over 21% year-to-date, remains on an upward trajectory with it this week briefly having risen above its July peak at 7,228 pence this week.
Next Weekly Candlesticks Chart
Once the current September high at 7,336p has been exceeded, the October 2021 low at 7,426 could be reached ahead of the December 2021 low at 7,564. Both of these lows are part of the lower boundary of the major 2021 sideways trading band and now resistance which reaches all the way to Next’s 8,484p September 2021 all-time high.
This bullish forecast will remain valid while the August low at 6,724 holds.
Next Daily Candlesticks Chart
Support above the key 6,724p low comes in around the 7,092 mid-August high and also along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and early September low at 6,948p to 6,936.
Analysts’ recommendations and IG sentiment
Fundamental analysts mostly rate the Next share price as a ‘buy’ with Refinitiv data showing 5 strong buys, 8 buys, 10 hold, 1 sell and 1 strong sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of 7,125.00 pence for the share, roughly 1% above the current price (as of 13/09/2023).
IG sentiment data shows that 53% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 13/09/2023) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 47% of clients expect the price to fall. Trading activity over the last week shows 54% of buys and this month 62% of buys.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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