Tech selloff and UK inflation surprise reshape trading landscape ahead of Jackson Hole

​​​Nvidia leads tech rout as AI bubble concerns resurface

​The technology sector faced its most significant selloff in months, with Nvidia plummeting 3.5% in its largest single-day decline since April. The drop came after Sam Altman's comment that "AI is in a bubble" rekindled concerns about stretched valuations across the artificial intelligence (AI) space.

​This wasn't just a Nvidia story, though. The broader tech sector witnessed widespread selling as investors questioned whether the AI rally has run too far too fast. Communication services stocks dropped 1.2%, while the technology sector itself fell 1.9%, highlighting the breadth of the selloff.

​The timing couldn't be worse for tech bulls, coming just ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium where Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell's comments could set the tone for monetary policy. With interest rate cut expectations already scaling back, any hawkish tilt could amplify tech sector weakness.

​However, not all chip stocks suffered equally. Intel surged 7% on news of a $2 billion investment from SoftBank, demonstrating that company-specific catalysts can still drive individual stock performance even in a sector-wide selloff.

UK inflation surprise challenges Bank of England's dovish turn

The United Kingdom's (UK)​ inflation data delivered an unwelcome surprise, with core consumer price index (CPI) rising to 3.8% year-on-year (YoY) against expectations of 3.7%. This marks the highest reading since early 2024 and immediately called into question the Bank of England's (BoE) recent shift towards a more accommodative policy stance.

​Services inflation proved particularly sticky, hitting 5.0% and exceeding even the BoE's own forecasts. This component is closely watched by policymakers as it reflects domestic demand pressures and wage growth dynamics that are harder to influence through monetary policy.

​The headline surprise has already shifted market expectations, with traders now pricing just a 40% chance of another BoE rate cut this year, down from 48% before the release.

​Yet beneath the surface, the inflation picture remains more nuanced. Trimmed mean analysis shows that core goods inflation actually weakened materially, falling 0.7% month-on-month (MoM), suggesting the broader disinflationary trend may still be intact despite the headline surprise.

​Jackson Hole symposium looms over global markets

​All eyes turn to Jackson Hole this week, where Powell's speech could reshape market expectations for United States (US) monetary policy. The timing is particularly crucial given the recent tech sector volatility and mixed economic signals from both sides of the Atlantic.

​Traders are positioned for potential volatility, with many hedging their equity positions ahead of Powell's appearance. The combination of tech sector uncertainty and evolving rate cut expectations creates a perfect storm for increased market swings.

​Powell faces a delicate balancing act. Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, but recent economic data suggests the Fed may need to remain more cautious than investors hope. Any hint of a hawkish tilt could amplify the current tech sector weakness.

​The global nature of central bank policy coordination means Powell's comments will resonate far beyond US markets. European and UK assets are particularly sensitive to shifts in Fed policy, given the interconnected nature of global monetary conditions.

Currency markets reflect shifting central bank expectations

​The New Zealand dollar provided the day's most dramatic move, tumbling 1% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates and signalled more easing ahead. This dovish surprise created immediate trading opportunities for those positioned correctly.