LNG supply shock vs crude and gold restraint

Four days into the United States (US)–Israel–Iran conflict, commodities continue to reflect heightened geopolitical risks. We have seen some extreme moves, notably an eye-popping rally in ​natural gas, contrasting sharply with more restrained moves in crude oil and precious metals.

The backdrop

President Trump stated yesterday that the operation could last weeks and refused to rule out the deployment of US ground troops. The administration has signalled that its hardest actions are yet to come as it seeks to dismantle the missile shield protecting Tehran’s nuclear program, while simultaneously pushing for regime change.

This rhetoric, while aggressive, is also likely designed to force Tehran to reconsider its drone and missile attacks, which have now targeted more than a dozen countries – including direct hits on oil and gas infrastructure in at least three Gulf states.

These attacks reveal a growing strain. Reports emerged overnight that interceptor missile stocks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar could be depleted within a week, potentially leaving their oil infrastructure dangerously exposed to further Iranian strikes. Consequently, both nations are privately lobbying allies to persuade President Trump to seek an off-ramp. This seems unlikely, however, especially after the US issued ‘depart now’ alerts for more than a dozen countries in the Middle East this morning.

What does this mean for energy prices?

The Strait of Hormuz – a choke point for 20% of the world’s oil – remains effectively closed. Tanker attacks and insurance cancellations have brought transit to a standstill. Yet, somewhat surprisingly, the rally in crude oil has been relatively tame; prices are currently trading at $71.89, about 8.3% below the $78.40 high it hit last June during 'Operation Midnight Hammer'.

Partly, this reflects a market betting on a short conflict and one that was already positioned for such an event. But it likely also stems from comments made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio this morning: ‘We have a program in place to mitigate higher energy prices, and Secretaries Wright and Bessent will begin to roll that out tomorrow.’

This points towards regulatory relief and production incentives in the US, which has the capacity to act as a buffer given its status as the world’s largest oil and gas producer.

The story is very different for natural gas. Dutch futures (TTF) surged nearly 39% overnight to €55/MWh. This panic follows Qatar suspending ​liquified natural gas (LNG) production after sustaining drone strikes. Because Qatar accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, this is a massive blow to European energy markets that were already grappling with low storage levels.

What does this mean for precious metals?

Gold is doing what it usually does in times of crisis – trading higher at $5,364 (+0.80%) on solid safe-haven demand, though it remains about $238 (4.4%) below its record $5602 high. This tepid rally, much like crude oil's, partly reflects a market already positioned for conflict and betting on a shorter duration.

The real curiosity here is silver. Despite leading gold higher in recent months, it fell 4.74% yesterday to finish at $89.34, some $32 (26%) below its $121.67 record high. This divergence is worth watching; if silver’s weakness persists, it could eventually act as an anchor, dragging gold prices down with it.

Crude oil technical analysis

Late last week, crude oil decisively broke through the top of its $55 – $66.50 range, a band it had traded within for the past seven months. This was followed by a significant gap higher yesterday – a second clear bullish signal in just two trading days.

Provided crude oil can hold above the key support zone of $67 – $69, and with the Middle East conflict showing no signs of quick resolution, the rally could extend. We see scope for prices to push towards the June high of $78.40, and potentially even the January 2025 high at $80.77.

However, should crude oil lose that $67 – $69 support band – likely on any signs of de-escalation – we would expect to see prices revert back towards the $61 area, the middle of its former range.

Crude oil daily candlestick chart

Gold technical analysis

The technical picture for gold has become clearer as the dust settles following its flash crash in late January. The sell-off from the $5602 high down to the $4402 low is clearly defined as the first wave (Wave A) of a three-wave correction.

The current rally from that $4402 low now counts as Wave B (the second leg of the correction) and has come very close to its $5500 wave equality target.

If gold now turns lower from just below the $5500 resistance and then loses support around $5100, it will signal that the third leg lower (Wave C) has begun, with a likely return towards $4400.

Gold daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 3 March 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}