CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Bitcoin technical outlook: down but not out

Bitcoin’s failure to extend lower recently is an encouraging sign for bulls; has BTC/USD capitulated and what are the possible scenarios at the key signposts to watch?

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin short-term technical outlook - neutral

The apparent failure of Bitcoin to extend its losses in the past two weeks could be an early sign that cryptocurrencies may have run their bearish course for now.

Granted, price action is still unfolding and BTC/USD could still embark on another leg lower. However, the stalling of the down move recently keeps alive the possibility that the early-November decline could be ‘capitulation’. If this were indeed the case, a base-building process in BTC/USD could be in play – a relatively high probability scenario highlighted on November 15.


BTC/USD weekly chart

Momentum on the weekly chart didn’t make a new low as spot fell below its June bottom of 17590. Momentum is indicative of force, and when support levels are broken with stronger downside conviction, this generally signifies further weakness in price.

The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now above its June low, suggesting positive momentum divergence (a new low in price associated with a higher low in momentum).

Source: TradingView

BTC/USD daily chart

One of the signposts to watch for Scenario 1 to play out would be a break above immediate resistance at the mid-November high of 17170. Such a move would indicate that immediate downward pressure is beginning to ease. A stronger signal would be a rise above the November 10 high of 18140, which could bring into play the 5 November high of 21470, near the 200-day moving average.

The second scenario, and a relatively low probability one, would see BTC/USD extend its weakness initially toward the 2019 high of 13895, and possibly lower. A decisive break below the November 9 low of 15510 could be the first signpost to watch for the bearish scenario to unfold.

Source: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.


The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.

Start trading forex today

Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market

  • Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse with clear, fast charts
  • Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps

See an FX opportunity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Take your position
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.