Macro Intelligence
In this week’s edition of IG Macro Intelligence, we take a closer look at ASX 200-listed healthcare stocks.
Citi analysts have revealed their top picks in the Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) healthcare space, considering the impact of United States (US) tariffs, revenue drivers, and market sentiment.
ResMed, CSL, and Telix Pharmaceuticals top the list, while analysts remain neutral on Cochlear.
ResMed shares are up around 16% over the past 12 months, despite underperformance in the past month.
ASX Tradewatch data shows shares are in a long-term uptrend, suggesting a continued rally in both the short and long term.
Citi analyst Laura Sutcliffe notes that ResMed has largely escaped the effects of US tariffs due to its sleep apnea equipment falling under the Nairobi Protocol. She also highlights ResMed's expansion, doubling its manufacturing capacity in the US, while maintaining operations in Australia and Singapore.
The broker has a 'buy' recommendation on ResMed with a target price of $51, indicating that the market may be undervaluing the company's potential to grow its gross margin in the medium term. This target is higher than the average recommendation surveyed by Refinitiv, suggesting a potential further rally of 17% to $48.60.
On the subject of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) weight loss drugs, Citi analysts suggest these could impact ResMed's total addressable market long term.
Meanwhile, ResMed Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Mick Farrell remains optimistic, stating that sleep apnea diagnostics complement their growth, providing a tailwind rather than a headwind.
CSL shares took a hit after the fiscal year (FY) 2025 results, falling around 25% due to concerns about its outlook and plans to divest its Seqirus flu vaccine business.
Bell Potter downgraded its outlook to 'hold' from 'buy'.
However, Citi maintains a 'buy' rating with a target price of $265, suggesting a potential 33% upside, as the current valuation is considered supportive.
Shane Ponraj of Morningstar views CSL's recent downturn as masking long-term upsides, driven by plasma-driven margin gains, restructuring, and vaccine spin-off positioning it for a gradual recovery.
Despite these positive views, concerns remain about the company's demerger. David Lane from Ord Minnett points out uncertainty surrounding the valuation and execution of this move.
Telix Pharmaceuticals shares have underperformed, down almost 30% over the past year.
Citi sees several potential catalysts over the coming months for both its diagnostic and therapeutic franchises.
It initiated coverage on the stock with a 'buy' and high-risk rating and $34 target price, suggesting the stock could rally almost 145% from current levels.
The average broker recommendation on the stock is also a 'buy', with a median target price of $28.34, indicating an 88% upside.
However, technical analysis indicates a long-term bearish trend, with the 200-day moving average falling, suggesting low demand for the stock.
Citi analysts are neutral on Cochlear, along with others like Fisher & Paykel, Ansell, and Ramsay Healthcare. The neutral rating is a downgrade from 'buy', with a revised target price of $320, down from $350.
Analysts are cautious about double-digit growth in the second half of FY 2026, given cost-of-living pressure challenges.
Despite Cochlear’s dominant position and innovation, analysts suggest holding the stock at current levels due to acknowledged service line revenue weaknesses.
Cochlear shares are up about 5% over the past 12 months. Despite multiple technical indicators confirming a downtrend, analysts suggest holding the stock at current levels.
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