As the current economic expansion rolls on, fears of a recession are on the rise. Those who use calendars to guess the next move in data have become worried by the fact that the last US recession (defined as at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth) is now nearly nine years ago.
While it is impossible to predict the future, the current set of data points continue to suggest that the US economy will keep growing. As a bellwether for the global economy, the US remains the one to watch, even if its stock market has not rebounded to the degree seen in the UK and the eurozone. While it might be tempting to suggest recent US equity weakness is down to a stronger dollar, history suggests that there is no real correlation between the US dollar and US equity market performance: