The strong supportive factor has been that estimates around OPEC (and select non-OPEC nations’) output have been coming down in the last two weeks, suggesting the market believes the agreed cuts to production will actually be adhered to. This focal point should get even greater attention in the lead up to the May OPEC meeting.
What we are seeing in the charts, though, is the bears taking control. The weekly chart of US crude is very interesting if we look at price action and the candle patterns. We can see this week candle failing to break above last week's high, with the sellers swiftly kicking in, and it certainly seems as though the price will close firmly below last week's low. From a weekly perceptive the key level is the January low of $51.34, so a weekly close below this level should be taken as a bearish development and opens up a nice move below $50.