Focus on US Inflation

CHINA ECONOMY

Newly appointed Governor of China's central bank, Yi Gang, detailed a timetable for implementing a number of reforms aimed at increasing foreigners' access to Chinese financial markets and the financial industry in a Boao forum. This is another step towards a possible bilateral agreement, after President Xi Jinping's more conciliatory speech yesterday.

Today the market will be focused on US inflation figures at 14:30 and Fed minutes at 20:00. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.1% on an annual basis. An upside surprise higher would revive the fears of the beginning of the year. However, inflation would most likely need to surprise 2 -3 months before the Fed changes course. For now, the Fed's policy of gradual rate hike remains the most likely scenario, which is rather positive for equity markets.

DAX - as long as 12300-320 holds, expect a further rise towards 12430, then 12470 (except in case of higher inflation in the US)

Support: 12320, 12255, 12200

Resistance: 12388, 12430, 12470

SP500 – expect a further rise to 2675 and then 2690  (except in case of a higher inflation)

Support: 2635, 2610, 2600

Resistance: 2675, 2690, 2715

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