US equities hit record highs as focus shifts to US jobs data and SpaceX IPO

Geopolitical developments keep markets on edge

United States (US) equity markets extended their winning streak to close out Friday, the week and the month at fresh record highs. The rally was largely underpinned by growing optimism surrounding a potential 60‑day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, a move that would pave the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

By Friday's closing bell, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 had gained 2.89% for the week and a remarkable 10.49% for May, building on its blistering 15% surge in April. The S&P 500 added 1.43% last week to cap off a robust 5.15% monthly advance, while the Dow Jones chipped in with a solid 452-point gain (+0.89%) for the week and 1384 points (+2.79%) for the month.

Over the weekend, reports emerged that while President Trump remains keen to finalise the deal, he is actively pushing to strengthen several key clauses – most notably those concerning Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Further dampening near-term expectations, reports indicate that Israeli troops have pushed deeper into Lebanon, despite a six-week-old ceasefire remaining nominally in effect. Meanwhile, concerning footage has surfaced showing objects resembling naval mines floating in the Strait of Hormuz.

The latter serves as a stark reminder that even if a diplomatic agreement is inked, it won’t instantly unleash a flood of crude supply. Mines must be cleared, damaged infrastructure repaired, shut-in production restarted and tankers carefully repositioned.

These lingering geopolitical hurdles saw crude oil jump roughly 2.5% on the reopen this morning, reclaiming the $90 handle. US equity futures, however, remain entirely unfazed and are trading marginally higher in early action.

SpaceX IPO

With earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, market attention will now pivot to this week's crucial jobs data and the roadshow for the highly anticipated SpaceX initial public offering (IPO). Set to launch on 12 June, the blockbuster debut is widely expected to eclipse anything we’ve seen before.

SpaceX will comprise three key business segments:

1. Connectivity (Starlink): the main cash engine and currently the only consistently profitable segment, serving 10 million customers.
2. Space (launch services): having already delivered over 2000 metric tonnes to orbit – the equivalent of five International Space Stations – it boasts a structural cost advantage that becomes more powerful with every Starship flight.
3. AI and compute: the true wildcard, this division (including Grok, X and the Cursor partnership) potentially carries the biggest asymmetric upside.

For traders who don’t want to wait until the shares hit the open market under the ticker SPCX, IG clients can participate in the IPO via IG’s SpaceX pre‑IPO market, tied to SpaceX’s expected market capitalisation.

You can read more about the SpaceX pre‑IPO by my colleague in Europe, Salah-Eddine Bouhmidi, here.

Late last week, Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is now targeting at least $1.8 trillion for the IPO, a slight adjustment from the previously reported $2 trillion figure. This recalibration came after consultations with advisers and investors. Despite IG’s SpaceX pre‑IPO market moving lower on these reports, it is still pointing to a SpaceX market cap of more than $2.3 trillion at the time of its stock market debut.

Non‑farm payrolls in focus

Turning to Friday’s all-important May non-farm payrolls report. Consensus expectations point to a gain of around 93,000 jobs for May, with the unemployment rate forecast to hold steady at 4.3%.

The US interest rates market kicks off the week pricing in roughly 14 basis points (bp) of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike for December, with a full rate hike priced in for April.

US unemployment rate chart

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

From its late-March low of 22,841, the Nasdaq 100 has staged an incredible rally, surging 33% in just nine weeks to hit a high of 30,470 on Friday.

Following the latest leg higher from the 19 May low of 28,567, clear bearish relative strength index (RSI) divergence has now emerged. While this signals that upward momentum is fading, it doesn’t necessarily mean a sharp reversal is imminent.

More importantly, the divergence serves as a warning that chasing the rally or giving in to fear of missing out (FOMO) at current levels is becoming increasingly risky. Furthermore, history shows that when these kinds of explosive, parabolic moves eventually turn, buying the dip can be just as dangerous as chasing the rally at extended levels.

Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart

Dow Jones technical analysis

From its late-March low of 45,063, the Dow Jones has rallied more than 13% to reach Friday’s high of 51,099.

Unlike the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, the Dow is not showing bearish RSI divergence. This suggests the blue-chip index has the potential to extend its gains.

While some near-term consolidation cannot be ruled out, provided the Dow Jones holds above the 50,000 psychological level, we look for further upside toward the 52,000 region in the coming weeks.

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 1 June 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}