DAX 40 flirts with resistance while AUD/USD consolidates and copper price rises    

Macro update

Stocks rise on peace hopes: Asian equities advanced as investors focused on US-Iran negotiations, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan up 0.8%, US futures higher and European futures pointing to a stronger open.

Nikkei nears record high: Japan’s Nikkei climbed more than 2%, led by AI-related stocks following gains in US chipmakers, with SoftBank, Tokyo Electron and Advantest among the main contributors.

Oil remains volatile: Brent moved back above $102 a barrel as uncertainty persisted over the prospects for a US-Iran breakthrough, although prices were still on track for a weekly decline after sharp swings driven by conflicting signals from the talks.

Hormuz risk keeps inflation fears alive: Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate the macro outlook, with elevated energy prices feeding inflation concerns and prompting markets to price in tighter monetary policy.

Dollar holds near six-week high: The dollar remained supported by safe-haven demand, resilient US economic data and rising expectations of further rate hikes, while the euro traded near recent lows and sterling was little changed.

Yen intervention risk grows: The yen weakened beyond 159 per dollar despite suspected recent intervention, keeping traders alert for further action from Tokyo as softer Japanese inflation complicates the Bank of Japan’s tightening path.

DAX 40 flirts with resistance

The Dax 40 has seen a strong advance this week and is trying to reach its early May high at 25,152, provided that Wednesday's low at 24,288 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

If not, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,130 may be revisited and perhaps also the March-to-May uptrend line at 23,960.

Short-term outlook: bullish while trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,130

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 30 April low at 23,716

DAX 40 daily candlestick chart

AUD/USD consolidates

AUD/USD is range trading above its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.7094 which offered support in the course of this week.

While the cross remains within Tuesday's $0.7177-to-$0.7080 range, further sideways trading is expected to be witnessed.

A fall through $0.7080 may lead to the $0.70000 region being revisited whereas a break above $0.7177 would likely engage the $0.7186-to-$0.7200 resistance zone.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below its $0.7223 15 May high

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 May low at $0.7080

AUD/USD daily candlestick chart

Copper price resumes advance

Copper's recovery from this week's $6.0806 low is ongoing with further upside looking probable while this level underpins. A gradual advance towards the metal's $6.6328 record high seems to be at hand.

Good support sits at $6.1505-to-$6.0806.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above $6.0806

Medium-term outlook: bullish while trading above the 4 May $5.7732 low

Copper price daily candlestick chart