ASX 200 hits five-month high on cooler CPI, miner results and Asia carnage

Cooler inflation boosts hopes of extended RBA pause

The ASX 200 has ripped 138 points (+1.54%) higher to a five-month high of 9086.1, supported by a strong mix of cooler-than-expected inflation, solid updates from two of the big miners and its position as a lower-beta safe haven while high-beta technology (tech) markets in Asia continue to be savaged.

Starting with today’s inflation update, which delivered a much cooler set of numbers than expected. The annual headline rate came in at 3.8% for the year to June, down from 4.0% the previous month and below the 4.0% consensus. The trimmed mean held steady at 3.6% year-on-year (YoY), also below the 3.8% forecast.

On the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred quarterly measures, the trimmed mean rose to 3.6% YoY from 3.5% in the first quarter (Q1), below both the 3.7% expected by the market and the RBA’s own 3.8% forecast for June.

This followed a subtle dovish shift in messaging from RBA Governor Michele Bullock at the Anika Foundation yesterday. While the RBA’s hawkish bias remains in place – ‘The Board is prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed’ – the Governor acknowledged weakness in housing and employment.

The combination of the softer tone from the Governor yesterday and today’s cooler inflation print is expected to keep the RBA on hold at 4.35% next month, music to the ears of the interest-rate-sensitive ASX 200.

Rio Tinto and Mineral Resources kick off reporting season strongly

Meanwhile, the first batch of results marking the start of the August reporting season brought solid updates from two of the big mining names.

Rio Tinto’s HY26 result showed profit after tax attributable to owners rose 47% to US$6.67 billion from the prior corresponding period, driven by a strong contribution from copper, where EBITDA jumped 84%, as the metal continues to close the gap on iron ore. The company declared an interim dividend of US211 cents per share, its biggest since 2022, sending its share price 4.55% higher to $166.87.

Elsewhere, Mineral Resources lifted 4.76% to $55.62 after its June-quarterly report beat guidance across the board, with record volumes in Mining Services, iron ore and lithium. Onslow Iron shipments and costs both came in better than expected, while the balance sheet improved with higher liquidity and lower net debt.

ASX 200 benefits from ongoing sell-off in Asian technology markets

Finally, the ASX 200 continues to attract inflows thanks to its status as a lower-beta safe haven while high-beta, tech-heavy markets in Asia continue to be savaged.

The last thing the Korean stock market needed this morning was an earnings miss from key member SK Hynix, which sent its shares 12.97% lower and dragged the KOSPI down 10% to 5422, more than 40% below its mid-June record high of 9385. Given the extraordinary amount of margin lending that chased the market higher and has now been wiped out on the way down, the risk of a Korean-style financial crisis is rising quickly.

In sympathy, the Nikkei fell 2.85%, eyeing psychological support at 60,000.

ASX 200 technical analysis

The ASX 200 has been stuck in a broad 8500 - 9000 trading range since early April, and today it broke through the top of that range.

In theory, a sustained break above 9020 - 9030 would open the way for a test of the February high at 9202.

However, with the potential for volatility over the next six weeks of reporting season, it is not a break higher I am looking to chase at this stage.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 29 July 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}