FTSE 100 tries to regain losses while EUR/USD probes key support and WTI rises
Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 as it tries to regain losses while EUR/USD probes key support and WTI rises.
Macro update
Asia shares trade cautiously:
Regional equities were mixed as tensions in the Gulf kept investors on edge, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipping 0.3% while MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan edged 0.4% higher.
Oil holds above $100:
Brent crude oil gained around 1.5% to roughly $104 a barrel as uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sustained a geopolitical risk premium in energy markets.
Major central bank week begins:
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) meet this week, with elevated oil prices complicating the outlook for both inflation and economic growth.
RBA expected to tighten policy:
Australia’s central bank is widely seen raising rates by 25 basis points as officials respond to persistent inflation pressures.
Dollar softens slightly:
The US dollar eased modestly from recent highs, while the Japanese yen hovered near ¥160 per dollar and sterling traded around $1.33 after last week’s decline.
Attention on Fed and AI sector:
Investors are watching the Fed’s updated projections and remarks from the chair, while NVIDIA developer conference could refocus markets on artificial intelligence stocks.
FTSE 100 tries to regain lost ground
The FTSE 100 remains under pressure but may regain lost ground as long as it stays above last week's 10,198 low. A rise above Friday's 10,368 high may lead to a recovery towards the 10 March high at 10,471 being seen.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 13 March low at 10,198.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above the 9 March low at 10,079.
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD tries to find support
EUR/USD's sharp slide has taken it close to its $1.1392 August 2025 low at $1.1411 on Friday, a level above which the cross is trying to find support on Monday. While this support zone holds, a recovery towards the 9 March low at $1.1507 may ensue.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 13 March low at $1.1606, targeting the $1.1392 August 2025 low
Medium-term outlook:
Bearish while below the $1.1831 late February high.
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
Oil price flirts with the $100 mark
The US-Israel-Iran war keeps oil prices elevated with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading back above the $100 per barrel mark. A rise above Monday's $102.44 high may push the $105 region to the fore whereas a fall through Monday's intraday low at $96.74 may lead to the $90 region being revisited.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 13 March low at $92.04.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 10 March low at $76.73.
WTI daily candlestick chart
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