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WTI oil price under pressure ahead of US midterm results
WTI retreats towards $95 as hopes of a deal with Iran weigh on oil prices and the US midterm elections add uncertainty. The pullback brings the $91–92 support zone closer.
The Oil - US Crude oil price is under pressure on US midterm election day. IG’s daily chart shows US crude trading at around $95.34 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon. Hopes of progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran are weighing on prices. Renewed military escalation, however, could push geopolitical risk premiums higher again
Key takeaways
US midterm elections and Iran shape the oil price outlook
For the oil market, the key issue is the course Washington takes after the election. One possible risk scenario is that a decisive Democratic victory prompts Donald Trump to increase military pressure on Iran. New strikes and potential retaliation could heighten concerns about supply disruptions. The link between the election outcome and military action remains uncertain.
If a diplomatic agreement emerges after a period of heightened tension, geopolitical risk premiums could ease. Actual production and export volumes would then carry greater weight in pricing. According to Reuters, two of three ship-tracking firms reported higher Saudi crude exports in October than in September. This could add to downward pressure on prices if tensions ease.
WTI technical analysis: $91–92 support comes into focus
The retreat to around $95.34 has taken WTI back below the top of its former trading range at approximately $96–96.50. This puts the earlier upside breakout under pressure. As long as the uptrend in place since July holds, however, the decline remains a correction within that broader trend.
The next important support zone lies at $91–92, where the lower boundary of the rising channel meets the first monthly pivot support level, S1. A sustained break could open the way towards the 100-day moving average at around $88.50–89, followed by the lower boundary of the rectangle near $86.50. Only a further break below that level would bring the next monthly pivot support, S2 near $80, into consideration.
To the upside, WTI would first need to reclaim $96–96.50 and then the monthly pivot around $97.50–98. This would bring $100 and the recent highs near $103–104.30 into view.
The 34-period RSI is approaching the 48.5–50 area. Stabilisation above this zone would be constructive, while a clear break below 48.5 would reinforce the loss of momentum.
WTI daily chart with rising channel and monthly pivot levels
WTI long and short trading setups
These scenarios require confirmation. All price levels are rounded and quoted in US dollars per barrel.
| Scenario | Trigger and confirmation | Potential targets | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long at support | Bullish daily reversal at 91–92, with confirmation that support is holding | 96–96.50, then 97.50–98 | Break below the reversal low beneath 91 |
| Long above the monthly pivot | Daily close above 98, followed by a successful retest of the monthly pivot | 100, then 103–104.30 | Renewed sustained decline below 96 |
| Short after a failed rebound | Rebound stalls at 96–98, with a bearish daily candle confirming rejection | 92, then 91 | Daily close above 98 |
| Short after a trend break | Daily close below 91, followed by a failed attempt to reclaim 91–92 | 88.50–89, then 86.50 | Recovery and consolidation above 92 |
Oil price outlook: WTI remains vulnerable below $98
WTI remains vulnerable in the near term until it reclaims the $96–98 zone. Support at $91–92 will help determine whether the uptrend can absorb the pullback. A credible agreement with Iran would increase downside risks, while renewed escalation could quickly trigger another move higher.
WTI - Crude: Five-Year Price Performance
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