Wells Fargo earnings: Double bottom faces a key test

Interest margins, costs and credit quality in focus

Existing full-year guidance points to approximately $50 billion in net interest income and $55.7 billion in noninterest expenses. Investors will watch whether Wells Fargo & Co maintains or revises those targets.

The margin outlook has already offered some encouragement. In September, CFO Mike Santomassimo indicated that the third-quarter net interest margin was expected to perform better than initially anticipated.

Credit losses and the sustainability of fee income also matter. Higher revenue would be particularly reassuring if accompanied by disciplined costs and stable credit quality.

Seasonality: Historical support into December

The Seasonax study shows an average gain of 6.91% between 9 October and 7 December. Returns were positive in 20 of 25 observations, a historical frequency of 80%. This does not establish how the stock will react to the upcoming earnings release.

Wells Fargo: 25-Year Seasonal Pattern

Options price a move of around 5.3%

The options snapshot dated 6 October indicates an expected earnings move of ±4.54%, or approximately ±$3.79. This describes the magnitude priced at that time, without predicting direction or establishing a fixed trading range.

Analysts’ average price target stands at $98.70

The latest supplied LSEG/Refinitiv figures cover 24 analysts, with an average price target of $98.70. Individual targets range from $90 to $108. Against the reference share price of $83.55, the average implies approximately 18% upside.

Technical analysis: The 200-day EMA and resistance zone are pivotal

Between March and May, Wells Fargo formed a prominent double-bottom structure around $73–$74. The subsequent recovery repeatedly encountered selling pressure in the $87.50–$90 resistance zone. Temporary breakouts have so far failed to produce a lasting advance above this area.

Following September’s pullback, shares are now battling around the 200-day EMA at $83.74. A sustained recovery above it could encourage another test of $88–$90. Clearing the entire resistance zone would significantly strengthen the case for a move towards $96.

The RSI stands at 48.44, just below the 48.5 threshold used in this analysis. A sustained move above that threshold would provide additional evidence of improving momentum.

On the downside, the longer-term rising trendline now runs near $78–$79. A break would bring the $73–$74 double-bottom area back into focus. Losing that support would undermine the base formation.

Wells Fargo Daily Chart: Double Bottom and $88–$90 Resistance

WFC: Five-Year Share Price Performance