As the conversation moved from "which bank goes next?" to "what comes next?" it has allowed the market to return its focus to the macro data.

Key dates

Friday, 31st of March

• Core PCE inflation: the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is expected to stay stable at 4.7% YoY in February

Monday, 3rd of April

• Caixin Manufacturing PMI: the market is expecting a print of 51.5 in March from 51.6 in February

Tuesday, 4th of April

• ISM Manufacturing PM (1am AEDT/2pm GMT): the market is expecting a slight drop to 47.5 in March from 47.7 in February
• RBA Board Meeting: the interest rate market expects the RBA to keep interest rates on hold at 3.6%. Some economists are still expecting a 25bp hike

Wednesday the 5th of April

• JOLTS Job Openings (1am AEDT/2pm GMT)
• ADP Employment Change: the market is expecting a rise of 205k in March, less than the 242k rise in February
• RBA Governor Lowe Speech: at the National Press Club
• RBNZ Interest Rate Meeting: the RBNZ is expected to lift its official cash rate by 25bp to 5%. The interest rate market sees one more hike priced into the market by July, taking the cash rate to 5.25% before rate cuts into year-end

Thursday the 6th of April

• ISM Non-Manufacturing (1am AEDT/2pm GMT): the market is looking for a print of 54.6 in March from 55.1 in February
• Caixin Services PMI: the market is expecting a print of 55 in March from unchanged from 55 in February

Friday the 7th of April

• Non-Farm Payrolls: the market is looking for a gain of 240k in March compared to 311k in February and for the Unemployment Rate to remain stable at 3.6%

Economics calendar

Key Events

April RBA Board Meeting

The Minutes from the RBA's March Board meeting noted that it would be appropriate to pause its rate hiking cycle "at some point" to assess the effects of prior rate hikes. As part of its considerations, it would closely watch incoming employment, inflation, business surveys and retail sales data. Most data prints were softer than expected and the interest rate market expects the RBA to keep interest rates on hold at 3.6% next week to allow time to assess the impact of its 350bp rate hikes. However, some economists still feel that inflation is too high and are looking for another 25bp hike.

The interest rate market has called the RBA rate hiking cycle much better than the forecasters and for this reason, we believe the outcome of next week's meeting will be a pause.

US employment week

During the first two months of 2023, the US economy had created over 800k jobs which point to a very tight labour market and well above the 100k per month considered necessary to keep up with growth in the working-age population. This week three measures of labour market strength are released, the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the JOLTS Job Openings Report on Thursday before the big one on Friday night - Non-Farm Payrolls.

The market is looking for a rise of 240k jobs in March, following a gain of 311k in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.6%.