Week commencing 9 March 2026

ASX 200 loses ground as US markets show mixed results amid rising global tensions

United States (US) equities have experienced a mixed week, with theDow Jones falling 2.09% and the S&P 500  retreating 0.70%, while the Nasdaq 100 achieved a small gain of 0.24%. The broad weakness reflects ongoing concerns over the Middle East conflict, which has kept oil prices elevated and triggered fears of renewed inflationary pressure. Geopolitical headlines have overshadowed otherwise resilient economic data, and a supportive tone in the tech sector.

The ASX 200 is trading 4.08% lower at 8823, poised to end a three-week winning streak for its worst performance since June 2022. Local markets are mirroring the intense global risk-off mood. Contributing to the downward pressure are hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as Governor Michele Bullock stressed this week that every meeting 'is live', signalling heightened vigilance against inflation risks given the uncertain geopolitical landscape.

The week that was: highlights

• The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for February registered 52.4, above the consensus forecast of 51.8
• The ADP employment change showed the US economy added 63,000 jobs in February, exceeding the consensus forecast of 50,000
• The US ISM services PMI surged to 56.1 in February, well above the 53.5 consensus, marking its fastest pace of expansion since August 2022
• Initial jobless claims remained unchanged from the previous week at 213,000
• China's official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing PMI for February came in at 49.0, slightly missing the 49.1 consensus and remaining in contraction territory
• However, the RatingDog manufacturing PMI showed expansion at 52.1, comfortably beating the 50.2 consensus
• Japanese consumer confidence for February improved to 40, surpassing the 38.2 consensus forecast
• In the Euro Area, core inflation in February rose to 2.4% year-on-year (YoY), higher than the 2.2% expected
• In the Euro Area, the unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in January from 6.2% prior
• Australian company gross profits for the fourth quarter (Q4) jumped 5.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), well above the 3.6% consensus forecast
• Australia's Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate rose by 0.8% QoQ, exceeding the 0.6% consensus. Year-on-year, GDP climbed to 2.6% against a 2.2% consensus
• Australian building permits for January saw a preliminary decline of 7.2% month-on-month (MoM), a significant miss against the expected 5.5% increase
• Australian household spending rose 0.3% MoM in January, less than the 0.5% rise expected
• Crude oil surged an eye-popping 18.55% this week, reaching $79.50
• The US dollar index (DXY) lifted 1.45% to 99.01
• Bitcoin gained 8% to $71,002
• Gold fell 3.60% to $5088
• Wall Street's gauge of fear, the volatility index (VIX), surged to 23.75 from 19.85 the previous week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• AU – Westpac consumer confidence: Tuesday, 10 March at 10.30am AEDT
• AU – National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence: Tuesday, 10 March at 11.30am AEDT
• NZ – Business NZ PMI: Friday, 13 March at 8.30am AEDT

China & Japan

• CN – Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI): Monday, 9 March at 12.30pm AEDT
• JP – GDP growth (final): Tuesday, 10 March at 10.50am AEDT
• CN – Balance of trade (imports - exports): Tuesday, 10 March at 2.00pm AEDT
• CN – New Yuan loans: Saturday, 14 March at 8.00pm AEDT

United States

• US – CPI (February): Wednesday, 11 March at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – Initial jobless claims: Thursday, 12 March at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – Balance of trade: Thursday, 12 March at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index: Friday, 13 March at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – Durable goods orders: Friday, 13 March at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – GDP growth rate (second estimate): Friday, 13 March at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – Personal income and spending: Friday, 13 March at 11.30pm AEDT
• US – JOLTs job openings: Saturday, 14 March at 1.00am AEDT

Europe & United Kingdom

• UK – GDP: Friday, 13 March at 6.00pm AEDT

Key events for the week ahead

CN: CPI

Date: Monday, 9 March at 12.30pm AEDT

For January, China's CPI rose just 0.2% YoY, down sharply from 0.8% in December and missing expectations for around 0.4%. Meanwhile, core CPI eased to 0.8% YoY from 1.2%, the weakest in six months.

The February print is expected to show stabilisation around 0.2% YoY and 0.2% MoM, but a firmer renminbi adds another mild disinflationary layer. The Chinese yuan has appreciated steadily since late 2025, recently hitting almost three-year highs around 6.8320 per US dollar - its strongest level since early 2023.

As a major net importer of energy, metals, soybeans, and other commodities, a stronger renminbi lowers the local-currency cost of those imports, feeding through into softer producer prices and, over time, softer consumer prices when domestic pricing power is already limited. This currency strength acts as a persistent brake on inflation in an environment where headline figures remain subdued and core measures are softening.

China inflation rate chart

AU: Westpac consumer confidence

Date: Tuesday, 10 March at 10.30am AEDT

For February, the Westpac consumer sentiment index fell 2.6% to 90.5 from 92.9 in January, marking the third consecutive monthly drop and extending a period of softness driven by ongoing cost-of-living pressures and the impact of the RBA's recent 25 basis point (bp) rate hike -  the first in over two years.

Household finances weakened notably, with assessments compared to a year ago falling 4.7% to 78.8, while expectations for the next 12 months eased marginally to 97.7. Views on economic conditions over the next year held steady at 88.5, but the five-year outlook slipped 2.5% to 94.1. The 'time to buy a major household item' index dropped 5.6% to 93.5, and homebuyer sentiment weakened further as house price expectations hit a 15-year high of 173.9 (up 3.9%).

The upcoming March print faces additional headwinds from the escalation in Middle East tensions, which could amplify concerns around energy prices and inflation, alongside hawkish RBA rhetoric. RBA Governor Michele Bullock this week emphasised that every RBA meeting 'is live' and signalled the Board is alert to risks of unanchored inflation expectations due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

This confidence-sapping combination will likely see a fourth straight month of falls, potentially pushing the index towards 88 - which would mark the lowest reading since September 2024, underscoring ongoing caution among households.

Westpac Australian consumer confidence chart

US: Core PCE price index

Date: Friday, 13 March at 11.30pm AEDT

For December, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by 0.4% month-on-month (MoM), which saw the annual rate rise to 3.0%. That marked the highest annual core reading since early 2023 and came in slightly above expectations, driven largely by sticky services inflation and persistent shelter costs. Headline PCE also ticked higher to 2.9% YoY, reflecting the broader impact of energy price volatility.

The January print, due next Friday, is expected to show some moderation with consensus clustered around 0.3% MoM and 2.9 – 3.0% YoY for core. However, higher energy prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East have already pushed back expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.

The US interest rates market is currently pricing in a 97% chance that the Fed keeps rates on hold in March, with a full 25 bp rate hike not fully priced in until October (pushed back from June, this time last week).

A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce that caution, while a softer outcome would offer some relief to markets still hoping for gradual policy accommodation later in 2026.

US Core PCE price index  chart