US equities ride out volatile week higher; SpaceX's first report, jobs data centre stage

United States (US) equity markets closed higher on Friday and for the week, supported by strong earnings results from Microsoft and Alphabet that more than offset disappointment from Apple and Meta. Cooler US inflation data, a retreat in oil prices and the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s decision to leave the federal funds rate unchanged provided additional support.

Middle East signals renewed hope for diplomacy

Over the weekend and into the start of the new week, Middle East developments are again showing signs of de-escalation. President Trump said Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and even Iran had urged him to delay planned strikes, on a renewed push for diplomacy. Trump added that a deal on the Strait of Hormuz is in sight – and that he believes one already exists – with negotiations due to begin Monday afternoon, followed by talks on Iran's nuclear programme.

Whether this turns into a rinse and repeat of last week – with hopes of a deal collapsing as Iran digs in its heels and continues to leverage its control over the Strait, potentially through an attack on a US base or a tanker transiting the waterway – remains to be seen.

Against that backdrop, US equity futures have opened the week on a firmer note with Nasdaq 100 futures trading 195 points (+0.70%) higher at 28,603 and S&P 500 futures lifting 35 points (+0.47%) to 7555.

SpaceX takes centre stage as Q2 earnings season rolls on

Away from the Middle East, the second quarter (Q2) 2026 earnings season continues this week with reports from companies including Palantir, Snap, Spotify, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Shopify, Uber, Disney and Airbnb. Of particular interest will be SpaceX's first earnings report since listing (early Wednesday morning Sydney time) following a 36.57% decline in its share price last month.

The market is looking for SpaceX to report Q2 revenue of approximately $6.93 billion, a sharp 48% sequential increase from the $4.69 billion posted in Q1, driven by stronger contributions from Connectivity (Starlink ≈ $3.82 billion) and artificial intelligence (AI) (≈ $2.33 billion). Earnings per share (EPS) is forecast to improve markedly to a loss of around $0.26, compared with the $1.27 loss in Q1. The company is expected to turn profitable at the quarterly level in the third quarter (Q3) 2026 (EPS ≈ +$0.08), with further gains in the fourth quarter (Q4), although the full year is still projected to show an overall loss.

On the data front, the key event is Friday's non-farm payrolls report (previewed below). It will be preceded by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) purchasing managers' indices (PMIs), Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings and the ADP employment report.

US: Non-farm payrolls

Date: Friday, 7 August at 10.30pm AEST

For June, the US labour market delivered a downside surprise as NFP rose by just 57,000, missing the consensus forecast of 115,000. Despite the headline miss, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, partly due to a fall in the participation rate to 61.5%.

For the July report, expectations are for a modest rebound in hiring, with a headline print of 88,000, while the unemployment rate holds steady at 4.2%. This number would represent a 'Goldilocks-type' print – soft enough to help keep the Fed on hold in September but strong enough to avoid reigniting fears of a sharper slowdown in the labour market. Ahead of the key jobs data, the US rates market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 25 basis points (bp) hike at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

US unemployment rate chart

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

From its late-March low of 22,841, the Nasdaq 100 launched a powerful 35% rally in just over nine weeks to reach a record high of 30,762 in early June. The move was very much in line with our bullish outlook back in mid-April, although it hit the 30,000 target some six months earlier than we had anticipated.

Since then, we have been looking for a correction back towards the 28,000ish support area, which has played out largely as expected apart from last Wednesday's sharper downside move that was promptly reversed the following session.

With the Nasdaq 100 now back within its bullish trend channel, we think the correction from the 30,762 high is likely complete at last week's 27,176 capitulation low. An ability to reclaim short-term resistance at 28,500 on a closing basis would result in a bullish bias, targeting a retest and break of the 30,762 record high, with scope towards 32,000.

Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart

Dow Jones technical analysis

From its late-March low of 45,063, the Dow Jones staged an impressive rally, surging 14.5% in just over nine weeks to reach a fresh record high of 51,665 in early June.

After a brief pullback that found support at the psychologically important 50,000 level into mid-June, the index regrouped and hit a fresh record high of 53,294 in early July.

The pullback from 53,294 has unfolded in a corrective manner into the band of support at 51,600 – 51,300 that we have highlighted in recent reports (including here). This zone includes the early-June highs and late-June lows. Providing the Dow Jones holds above here, the uptrend remains intact, with the possibility of a push toward fresh record highs near 54,000.

Aware that if the Dow Jones were to lose the band of support in the 51,600 - 51,300 area, it would indicate that a deeper decline and retest of support at 50,000 is underway.

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 03 August 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}