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Stock of the day
IDP Education
A reporting change has lifted FY2025 revenue but cut FY2026 guidance for IDP Education amid global risks and elevated short interest.
(AI video summary)
This video was created on 18 December 2025 for IG audiences by ausbiz.
ASX code: AEL
Revenue reporting change impacts FY2026 guidance
IDP Education announced a change in how it reports student placement revenue, triggering a downgrade to financial year (FY) 2026 guidance. Revenue will now be recognised at the census date instead of registration, aligning Australian and United Kingdom (UK) practices with the United States (US) and Canada. The shift will boost FY2025 revenue but cut FY2026 earnings by about $2 million.
The update comes after a tough year for IDP, with its share price down nearly 50% on concerns over international student caps and tighter migration policies.
Global headwinds despite resilience
Analysts note that while the underlying business is strong and the stock appears cheap, geopolitical risks such as rising nationalism and migration restrictions pose challenges. Short interest remains high at 11.5%, which could trigger a short-covering rally if sentiment improves. Price targets suggest limited upside to around $6.00.
Investment outlook
IDP Education has shown resilience, but structural challenges in the international education market persist. Analysts suggest holding the stock and watching for triggers that could improve the outlook.
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