Silver price reaches $50 zone as downtrend continues

The silver price is approaching $50 after another decline of around 3%. The latest IG daily chart shows a low near $50.42 and a price of approximately $50.83 per troy ounce, bringing the previously identified $50 region into play.

The silver analysis published on 22 October outlined this scenario: a sustained break below $56 could expose $54, followed by the $50–$49.42 support zone. With both initial support levels now broken, the downtrend has continued. The next question is whether buying interest returns around this lower price region.

Fed interest rates remain a headwind for silver

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October. However, two policymakers voted for a 25-basis-point increase. With inflation still elevated, further tightening remains possible.

For the 9 December meeting, the CME FedWatch snapshot shows a 72.4% probability of a 4.00%–4.25% target range, compared with 58.2% a month earlier.

That comparison needs context. A month ago, another 31.3% was assigned to an even higher target range. The combined probability of rates being above their current level has therefore fallen from 89.5% to 72.4%. A hike remains the majority scenario, but these figures do not indicate an overall increase in tightening expectations.

December Fed rate expectations: 72.4% probability of a 25-basis-point increase

Silver outlook: $50 becomes the next key test

Silver’s technical picture remains weak. A sequence of lower highs and lower lows points to an intact downtrend. The 34-period RSI is moving towards 30 and remains well below the relevant 48.5 threshold. This signals weak momentum, but does not itself confirm a bottom.

If silver stabilises around $50–$49.42, a technical rebound could develop. The former support at $54 would provide the first important resistance level. Above that, $56, the lower boundary of the previous trading range, comes into focus. A sustained recovery above this level would represent a more meaningful improvement in the chart.

Conversely, a confirmed break below $49.42 would invalidate this support zone and favour further downside. Reaching the previously identified target region alone is therefore insufficient to establish a bullish reversal.

Silver daily chart: $50 support in focus after the break below $56 and $54

Silver: Five-Year Price Performance