Rio Tinto half-year 2026 earnings preview

When will Rio Tinto report its latest earnings?

Rio Tinto is set to deliver its half-year (HY) results for the period ending 30 June 2026 on Wednesday, 29 July 2026 at approximately 8.30am AEST.

Highlights from FY 2025

Rio Tinto's full-year 2025 results (released 19 February 2026) were solid enough, but hardly inspiring.

Underlying earnings held steady at US$10.9 billion, while underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 9% to US$25.4 billion and revenue climbed 7% to US$57.6 billion. Net earnings attributable to owners slipped 14% to US$10.0 billion – Rio's softest result since 2020.

Digging into the detail, copper was the clear standout. Production rose 11% and segment EBITDA more than doubled as the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up gathered real momentum. Iron ore remained the biggest earnings contributor but felt the pinch of a 6% drop in prices. Aluminium and the newly expanded lithium business (via the Arcadium acquisition) offered some useful diversification.

The company stuck to its 60% payout ratio, declaring a full-year ordinary dividend of US$402 cents per share (including a final dividend of US$254 cents).

Chief Executive (CEO) Simon Trott struck a confident note: 'We continue to invest in delivering industry-leading, value-accretive growth, supported by our disciplined capital allocation and best-in-class project execution.'

Although the numbers came in broadly in line with expectations, the market was less impressed as Rio's share price fell 3.11% the following session to close at $163.30.

2025 overview

Fast forward to mid-July and the tone improved. Rio Tinto's second-quarter (Q2) and first-half 2026 operations review (released 15 July) showed a solid operational performance, with copper-equivalent production rising 3% year-on-year (YoY) in the first half. Simon Trott pointed to the group's scale, geographic diversification and supply-chain strength as the reasons it had held up well despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Several core businesses showed clear muscle:

• Iron ore: the Pilbara delivered its highest first-half production since the 2018 record, with volumes up 6% YoY to 162.3 Mt (100% basis). Q2 Pilbara sales rose a strong 7% to 85.3 Mt, while global iron ore sales lifted 5% in the quarter to 89 Mt. The result reflected the successful rollout of the ongoing productivity programme across mine, rail and port operations. Simandou also continued to advance, with mine and port construction both now more than three-quarters complete and full rail commissioning achieved in the first quarter (Q1).
• Copper: Oyu Tolgoi remained the standout, delivering more than 30% growth in the first half and remaining firmly on track with its ramp-up schedule. Group copper production for the first half (H1) came in at 442 kt (up 1% YoY). The most encouraging development was the sharp cut in copper C1 net unit cost guidance to US 30 – 50 c/lb (from the previous US 65 – 75 c/lb range), thanks to higher gold by-product credits and productivity gains.
• Lithium: Production rose 20% YoY in Q2, driven by the ramp-up at the Rincon starter plant and first production (ahead of plan) at both Sal de Vida and Fénix 1B. H1 lithium carbonate equivalent output reached 27.3 kt.
• Aluminium: The integrated business showed resilience across the supply chain, with a solid recovery in bauxite production helping to underpin the result.

Guidance for full-year production and sales across the major commodities was left unchanged. Pilbara unit cash costs were also held steady at US$23.50 – US$25.00/t, although higher diesel prices (which rose from around US$85/bbl to US$140/bbl in the first half) added roughly US$0.80/t to unit costs in H1.

The market responded positively to the update, with the shares rising on the day as investors welcomed the volume growth, the improved copper cost outlook and continued progress on the key growth projects.

Summary of Rio Tinto's second quarter 2026 production results

Rio Tinto earnings – what to expect

The market will be looking for underlying earnings somewhere in the region of US$6.6 billion and an interim dividend around US$217 cents per share.

Attention will centre on how the strong first-half production volumes translate into cash flow, whether cost guidance holds in the face of elevated diesel prices, and any fresh updates on the Simandou ramp-up and lithium projects.

With iron ore prices having been volatile and copper still supported by supply tightness, the quality of the earnings and the tone of forward guidance will matter as much as the headline numbers.

Key financials – summary

• Underlying earnings of US$6.6 billion vs US$4.8 billion in the prior corresponding period (pcp).
• Underlying EBITDA of US$14.9 billion vs US$11.5 billion in the pcp.
• Revenue of US$32 billion vs US$26.8 billion in the pcp.
• Dividend of US$217 cents per share vs US$148 cents per share in the pcp.

Rio Tinto net earnings attributable to owners

Is Rio Tinto a buy or a sell?

Rio Tinto currently holds a TipRanks Smart Score of 10 'outperform'. However, somewhat confusingly, it is rated a 'hold' overall by analysts with 2 'buys', 5 'holds' and 2 'sell' as of 28 July 2026.

Rio Tinto TipRanks Smart Score

Rio Tinto technical analysis

From its late-June 2025 low at $100.75, Rio Tinto staged a powerful rally of more than 94% to hit a fresh record high of $195.84 in early June 2026. The surge was fuelled by resilient commodity demand and a notable rotation from overvalued banks into undervalued resource stocks throughout fiscal year (FY) 2025.

At the start of FY2026, that trend has reversed, with the materials sector underperforming relative to the banks. It remains unclear whether this is simple profit-taking or the start of a new trade, but either way it has weighed heavily on resource stocks. The hawkish June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting also boosted the United States (US) dollar and added further pressure on mining names.

The pullback from $195.84 to the recent low at $155.20 appears corrective in nature. This suggests that once the current correction runs its course, the underlying uptrend should resume, with scope for a retest and eventual break of the $195.84 record high.

In the near term, the $155 area remains key support, coming from the 200-day moving average (MA) at $157.69 and the recent swing low. The broader uptrend remains intact as long as the stock holds above this zone, although the market will want clean earnings and guidance before committing to taking the stock higher on its own merits.

A sustained break below the $155 support area would open the way for a deeper decline toward the $142.20 low struck on 23 March.

Rio Tinto daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 28 July 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}