Palantir's Q4 2025 earnings preview: AI leverage and deal flow

When will Palantir report its latest earnings?

Palantir Technologies is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, 3 February 2026 at 8.00am AEDT.

Highlights from the previous quarter

For third quarter (Q3) 2025, Palantir exceeded expectations with revenue of $1.181 billion compared to approximately $1.09 billion expected, and a non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.21 against expectations of approximately $0.17. It also provided better-than-expected guidance for the fourth quarter, despite a government shutdown, crediting much of its strength to artificial intelligence (AI).

The company reported the following Q3 2025 operational highlights:

• Revenue: reached $1.181 billion, an increase of 63% year-on-year (YoY)
• United States (US) commercial revenue: reached $397 million, up 121% YoY
• US government revenue: was $486 million, up 52% YoY
• Total US revenue: grew 77% YoY to $883 million
• Customer count: increased 45% YoY
• Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term US Treasury securities: were $6.4 billion.

Summary of Palantir's Q3 results

Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp highlighted the robust performance, stating: ‘114% – our Rule of 40 score! These results make undeniable the transformational impact of using AIP to compound AI leverage. Year-on-year growth in our US business surged to 77%, and year-on-year growth in US commercial climbed to 121%. We are yet again announcing the highest sequential quarterly revenue growth guide in our company’s history, representing 61% year-on-year growth.’

Despite the strong results, the stock closed 7.94% lower the following session at $190.74, falling from the record high of $207.52 it reached the day before. The negative reaction appeared to be driven by high valuations and broader AI market caution.

Palantir Rule of 40 chart 

Q4 2025 earnings expectations 

• Revenue: approximately $1.33 billion
• EPS: $0.23

During its Q3 2025 earnings report, Palantir guided Q4 2025 revenue to between $1.327 billion and $1.331 billion, representing 61% YoY growth. The company also raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $4.396 billion and $4.400 billion.

Additional expectations include adjusted income from operations to be $2.151 billion – $2.155 billion and adjusted free cash flow to be $1.9 billion – $2.1 billion. No specific expense guidance was provided, but the company continues to expect positive generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating income and net income each quarter.

Key areas to watch

In addition to headline revenue and EPS figures, investors will focus on several key areas during Palantir's Q4 2025 earnings report.

Continued AIP and US commercial momentum

Investors will watch for sustained triple-digit US commercial growth, new AI Platform (AIP) bootcamps/deals, and customer additions. Expansion in commercial (now approximately 30% – 40% of revenue) is key to diversifying beyond government.

Government segment and contracts

Updates on US government deals, potential international acceleration, and any risks from government funding/shutdown scenarios.

Profitability and margins

Track adjusted operating margins, free cash flow delivery toward the $1.9 billion – $2.1 billion full year guide. Rule of 40 score remains a flagship metric - expect commentary on maintaining 100%+.

Forward guidance

Focus on forward 2026 guidance, as any softening combined with lofty valuations could trigger volatility.

Broader AI/competitive landscape

Any mentions of AIP leverage vs competitors, enterprise adoption trends, or macro headwinds.

Is Palantir a buy or a sell?

Palantir has a TipRanks Smart Score of '6 neutral’ and is rated as a ‘hold’ by analysts with 6 ‘buy’, 10 ‘hold’, and 12 ‘sell’ recommendations as of 27 January 2026.

Palantir TipRanks Smart Score chart

Palantir technical analysis

Palantir shares closed out 2025 with a stunning 135% gain, ending the year at $177.75 – far outpacing the Nasdaq 100's more modest 21% return.

The stock experienced significant volatility throughout the year, dipping to a low of $63.40 in early January before surging more than 225% to its all-time high of $207.52 in early November – a peak that roughly aligned with the Nasdaq 100's own record high.

Since that record high, Palantir has spent the past three months in consolidation mode, testing uptrend support around $169.00 (drawn from the April 2025 low of $66.12).

To regain its upside momentum, the stock needs to regain and bounce away from this uptrend support following next week's earnings report.

A successful hold could pave the way for an initial rebound toward resistance at $187 – $190, with further gains eyeing a retest of the $207.52 high.

Conversely, a decisive break below the $169 support zone post-earnings report would signal downside risks, first targeting the 21 November low of $147.56, before the 20 August 2025 low near $142.34.

Palantir daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 27 January 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}