Oil price today: WTI faces $96 hurdle as Hormuz risks grow

Strait of Hormuz: Shipping attacks and rising tanker rates add pressure

Fresh attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing supply uncertainty. Iranian officials told Reuters that changes in their attack tactics aim to keep oil prices elevated and influence the US midterm elections. The attack on Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran adds to the uncertainty.

Shipping costs are also rising. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index reached 2,298 points on 13 October, an increase of approximately 24% since 25 September.

Crude oil shipping: Tanker freight rates rise again

Oil and inflation: Petrol costs drive US price pressures

US annual inflation rose to 3.7% in September, with consumer prices increasing 0.6% month on month. Petrol prices jumped 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase. Core inflation also accelerated, rising from 2.4% to 2.6%.

Eurozone inflation reached 3.8%, according to the flash estimate. Energy therefore remains a significant source of uncertainty for the inflation outlook.

WTI technical analysis: A break above $96 could target $106

IG’s daily Oil - US Crude chart shows a price near $94.43. The uptrend from July remains intact, with the price above its 100-day EMA and monthly pivot point. However, recent long upper wicks highlight selling pressure around $94–96.

The consolidation resembles a potential bullish rectangle. A sustained breakout above $96, preferably confirmed by a daily close, would open a measured target near $106, based on the height of the trading range. The psychological $100 level represents an initial hurdle.

The RSI holding above 48.5 supports the constructive momentum picture. If the breakout fails, the monthly pivot and then the $86–88 support area remain the key downside reference points.

WTI crude oil: $96 holds the key to a breakout

WTI COT data: No extreme positioning signal yet

The COT report published on 9 October reflects positions held on 6 October. Using a three-year lookback, the Larry Williams COT Index stands at 57 for commercial traders and 43 for large speculators. Both readings remain outside the extreme zones, providing no standalone positioning signal for a trend reversal.

WTI COT data: Positioning shows no extremes

Oil price: Potential long and short setups

• Long setup: A daily close above $96, followed by a successful defence of the breakout zone, could confirm renewed bullish momentum. Initial attention would turn to $100, followed by the measured technical target near $106. A move back into the trading range would weaken the breakout signal.
• Short setup: Another rejection around $95–96, followed by a daily close below the monthly pivot point, could open a pullback towards the $86–88 support area. A sustained move above $96 would challenge this short-term bearish scenario.

WTI - Crude: Five-Year Price Performance