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Earnings 2026
Goldman Sachs Earnings Preview: Falling Estimates Put the Stock to the Test
Goldman Sachs faces a pivotal earnings test as analysts cut forecasts and the stock searches for support. Results on October 13 will show whether trading and investment banking can restore investor confidence.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc heads into earnings with increasingly cautious analyst forecasts: 17 downward EPS revisions and no upgrades over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the stock is attempting to stabilise after its summer correction. The results will reveal how much momentum remains in its capital markets businesses.
Goldman Sachs Q3 Earnings: Release Time and Expectations
Goldman Sachs will report third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, October 13, at approximately 7:30 a.m. ET, followed by its earnings call at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The latest LSEG/Refinitiv consensus expects:
| Metric | Q3 2026 Estimate | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $13.02 | +6.3% |
| Revenue | $16.71 billion | Approximately +10% |
The StarMine SmartEstimate stands at $12.80, roughly 1.7% below consensus. Alongside the downward revisions, this highlights the more cautious earnings outlook.
For comparison, Goldman Sachs generated EPS of $20.98 and revenue of $20.34 billion in its strong second quarter.
What Matters Most in the Results
Equities trading: Consensus expects revenue of $4.68 billion, compared with approximately $7.4 billion in Q2. The extent of the slowdown from that exceptional quarter will be a key test.
Investment banking: Analysts forecast $2.97 billion in fees. Commentary on the deal backlog and merger activity could shape expectations for the coming quarters.
Asset management and costs: Incentive fees are expected to reach $218 million. Management previously signalled materially higher contributions in the second half. Compensation costs will also matter for profitability.
In brief
Lower forecasts make an earnings beat easier to achieve. A sustained stock recovery is also likely to require a convincing outlook for trading, deal activity and margins.
Seasonality and Analyst Targets Offer a Positive Counterpoint
The seasonal analysis shows an average return of 7.06% between October 9 and December 7, with gains in 80% of 25 observations. However, the five negative periods recorded an average loss of 13.71%. The seasonal pattern therefore offers no protection against further declines.
The average Refinitiv price target of $1,111.95 implies approximately 24% upside from the latest closing price of $895.32. Individual targets range from $941 to $1,300.
The options snapshot dated October 12 showed an implied move of ±4.60%. This reading provides no indication of the direction of the earnings reaction.
Goldman Sachs: Historical Seasonality from October to December
Technical Analysis: $869 Support Takes Centre Stage
Following its spring rally to the July high near $1,154, Goldman Sachs has entered a corrective phase. Repeated tests of the lower Keltner band highlight persistent selling pressure, although the latest close was slightly above that band.
The stock has also broken below its 200-day EMA at $944.22 and the Fibonacci level at $923.71. The latter now forms an initial resistance zone alongside the Keltner midpoint near $928.
Early stabilisation is visible around $869.36. Trading approximately 5.2% below the 200-day EMA leaves room for a rebound, but that distance alone is not a buy signal. The RSI at 40.83 remains below the 48.5 threshold used in this analysis.
A sustained recovery above $924–928 would support a rebound towards $944 and then $970. A break below $869, however, could extend the correction towards $840.
Goldman Sachs Daily Chart: $869 Support in Focus
Goldman Sachs: Long and Short Scenarios
| Scenario | Confirmation | Potential Targets | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long | Sustained recovery above $928; RSI above 48.5 would strengthen the signal | $944 / $970 | Failure to hold the reclaimed $924–928 zone |
| Short | Sustained break below $869 support | $840 | Recovery and stabilisation above $869 |
GS: Five-Year Share Price Performance
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