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Gold and natural gas head lower, but oil prices make gains

Gold and natural gas retain a more bearish outlook, while oil prices are aiming for a recovery after losses earlier in the week.

​Gold remains under pressure

The gold price managed to stave off further declines yesterday, after two days of retreating from the $2000 level.

This now brings the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) back into focus, and further losses today should put additional pressure on the price. Below the 50-day SMA, the support zone around $1900 comes into view, last tested in the second half of March.

An upside case requires a rally back above $1998, reversing the losses seen in the first part of the week.

For the time being this does not seem like a particularly high-probability event, although a weaker dollar could provide the break gold has been looking for.

WTI moves higher off 50-day SMA

Here a more bullish view has begun to emerge, after the price suffered a reverse during the first part of this week. After breaking out above trendline resistance at the end of last week, the price then pushed on to $108. However, it was unable to sustain these gains and fell back.

Early trading today has found the price bouncing off the rising 50-day SMA, a positive sign, especially following yesterday’s bounce off the lows that found support at the previous trendline resistance line. This now puts $108 back into contention, and from there the late March high at $114.83 comes into view.

A more bearish outlook would require a reversal below $100, putting the price below yesterday’s lows and potentially marking a false breakout above trendline resistance. This might bring the lows around $94 into view.

Natural gas retreats from recent highs

The price continued to soar into the beginning of the week, and only now has encountered some selling pressure.

Steep trendline support from early March could come into play soon in the event of additional declines today. A move below 6500 puts the price below trendline support and would suggest that a move back towards 5500 could be in the offing.

Before this, 6255 comes in as possible support, in the event of additional declines in the short-term.

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