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Brent crude oil, US natural gas and gold rise ahead of US inflation data

​​Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas ahead of US CPI data.

Oil Source: Bloomberg

​​​Brent crude oil bounces off $75 region on China demand hopes ​

Brent crude oil has bounced off its near one-year low made close to the $75 mark amid hopes that China will relax its Covid-19 restrictions further, boosting the demand outlook for the commodity. ​

The bounce off Friday’s low at $75.32, a level last traded in December of last year, is taking the price of Brent towards its November trough at $80.81, above which the 21 November low at $82.32 might also act as resistance ahead of the two-month downtrend line at $85.18. ​

While the next higher $89.30 to $89.35 22 November and early December highs aren’t overcome, Brent remains in a medium-term downtrend since a series of lower highs and lower lows can be spotted on the daily chart. ​

Minor support sits at last week’s $75.32 low and further support at the $71.13 March 2021 high.

Brent chart Source: ProRealTime

​Gold continues to flirt with the 200-day simple moving average

​Gold’s slip from last Friday’s $1,806 per troy ounce high has briefly taken it to Monday’s low at $1,778 before continuing to flirt around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,790 ahead of Tuesday’s US inflation data and the widely anticipated 50 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.

​The key technical levels to watch out for are the $1,810 early December high and last week’s $1,763 low. If the latter were to be slipped through, the precious metal may be slipping back towards its $1,735 to $1,727 key support area.

Were Friday’s and the early December highs at $1,806 to $1,810 to be exceeded, however, the way would be opened up for the June peak at $1,877 to be targeted. ​

Since negative divergence can still be seen on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), the odds favour either further short-term consolidation or a sell-off in the price of the precious metal and do not point to an advance in the near future.

Gold chart Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures recover to the 55-day SMA

​US natural gas futures have rallied by close to 25% from their $5.320 early December low amid hopes of China’s Covid restrictions easing and as the European Union (EU) seeks to break its deadlock over capping natural gas prices by agreeing to a price ceiling. ​

The front month futures contract gapped higher from Friday’s $6.313 high and is currently being supported by the area between the 55-day SMA and Monday’s low at $6,481 to $6.406.

​The previous two-month support line, because of inverse polarity now a resistance line, at $6.780 offers minor resistance, together with Monday’s $6.936 peak.

Further up meanders the 200-day SMA at $7,168 which is likely to act as resistance, if reached at all.

Natural gas chart Source: ProRealTime

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