29 January 2026

The Australia 200 trades 33 points (-0.38%) lower at 8900 at 3.00pm AEDT.

Geopolitical tensions weigh on ASX 200 as gold rises

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) is poised for a second consecutive day of losses as its opening this morning was overshadowed by geopolitical headlines that eclipsed the positive tailwinds from strong earnings results from Tesla and Meta.

Market sentiment soured on reports that President Trump is considering a new round of military strikes against Iran, following the failure of preliminary discussions between Washington and Tehran regarding the country's nuclear program and ballistic capabilities.

Trump warned on social media that 'time is running out' for a 'fair and equitable deal,' threatening that any future United States (US) attack would be 'far worse' than last June's strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

Options reportedly under consideration by the president include military airstrikes aimed at Iranian nuclear sites, government institutions, and security officials believed to be responsible for the killing of protesters during recent anti-government demonstrations.

The market impact was immediate. Gold jumped $180 (+3.30%) from $5418 to $5602, while crude oil climbed above $64 for the first time in six months.

ASX 200 stocks

Consumer discretionary sector

Meanwhile, the increasing likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) commencing a tightening cycle next week weighed again on consumer-facing stocks.

• Cettire dropped 5.93% to $0.56
• Temple & Webster fell 4.68% to $12.24
• Domino's Pizza declined 2.91% to $23.35
• Myer Holdings dropped 2.72% to $0.44.

Energy sector

 In the energy sector, the reaction was surprisingly muted

• Woodside edged just 0.08% higher to $25.00
• Ampol lost 2.25% to $3.09
• Beach Energy slipped 0.62% to $1.21.

Gold stocks

Despite the commodity spike, there was a reluctance to chase the move in the equity space. Among the gold miners:

• Northern Star Resources added 2.20% to $29.24
• Newmont lifted 1.47% to $186.50
• Genesis Minerals gained 1.05% to $8.23.

Rare earths stocks

Australian rare earths stocks came under sharp selling pressure today following reports that the Trump administration is reconsidering its earlier commitment to establish price floors for critical minerals projects in the US. This potential policy reversal, linked to funding constraints and challenges in implementing market-based pricing, has dented confidence in western supply-chain diversification efforts.

• Iluka Resources plunged 13.70% to $5.57
• Lynas Rare Earths fell 7.87% to $14.93
• Hastings Technology Metals dropped 6.72% to $0.55
• Arafura Rare Earths slid 6.60% to $0.24.

Technology sector

With one full trading session remaining in January, the ASX 200 information technology (IT) sector is down 8% for the month. Trading at nine-month lows, the sector is on track for a sixth consecutive month of declines. Today's falls were led by the usual suspects:

• DroneShield plunged 9.49% to $3.57
• Zip dropped 4.88% to $2.73
• WiseTech Global slipped 2.46% to $59.21.

Uranium stocks

No such problems for uranium stocks, which continued their impressive ascent as uranium futures surged 8% overnight to $98.25. The sharp move appears to have been driven by aggressive buying from the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, persistent supply tightness, and rising long-term nuclear demand linked to energy security concerns and growing power needs from artificial intelligence (AI) data centres.

• Deep Yellow soared 11.20% to $2.88
• Boss Resources lifted 2.53% to $2.03
• Paladin Energy gained 1.65% to $14.17
• Silex Systems rose 0.33% to $7.71.

ASX 200 technical analysis

Last week, the index found support ahead of trendline/channel support at 8750ish, coming from the November 8383 low. This has been followed by a solid rally towards the top of the trend channel, currently at 9000, before a modest pullback commenced.

Looking ahead, we expect the ASX 200 to continue its ascent towards the 9115.2 record high, guided higher by the boundaries of the trend channel.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 29 January 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}