ASX 200 report:
25 June 2026

The Australia 200 trades 31 points (-0.36%) lower at 8776 as of 3.45pm AEST.

ASX 200 pressured by commodity slump and Fed outlook

The ASX 200 is on track for its fourth decline in five sessions after a shaky open that saw the index drop 52 points (-0.59%) to a two-week low of 8756.2. While it did manage a 25 point bounce off that low as United States (US)  Nasdaq futures rallied 2% following Micron's blockbuster earnings report, the ASX 200, with its lack of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, was found wanting.

Today’s selling pressure in the ASX 200 was driven by two profit warnings and a renewed slide in key commodity prices, triggered by last week’s hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that has given the US dollar a real boost. Commodity prices are negatively correlated with the US dollar, and this resulted in the heavyweight materials sector falling for a sixth consecutive session.

Resilient labour data complicates RBA inflation outlook

On the data front, today’s stronger-than-expected May labour force and household spending figures will have kept the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflationary ‘spidey senses’ tingling.

Employment rose by a solid 40,300 in May, easily beating the 30,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4%. While the headline suggests a resilient labour market, the details were more nuanced; gains were heavily skewed towards part-time roles, underemployment ticked higher, and total hours worked fell sharply.

ASX 200 stocks

Consumer discretionary sector

Meanwhile, household spending delivered a much stronger rebound than anticipated, rising 1.3% in May to offset April’s 1.1% drop. The data suggests consumer demand is proving hardier than feared for now, providing a boost to consumer-facing stocks.

• Guzman Y Gomez jumped 9.26% to $20.75
• Temple & Webster lifted 4.90% to $6.00
• JB Hi-Fi added 4.20% to $81.69
• Premier Investments rose 4.02% to $14.76.

Corporate sector

However, the session’s more sobering news came from the corporate sector.

• Worley slumped 10.07% to $11.04 as ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt project timelines. The company now expects a $60 million hit to its financial year 2026 (FY26) underlying earnings before interest and tax amortisation (EBITA), double the impact it projected back in April.

Energy sector

Energy stocks were also in the firing line after West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 4.35% to $68.87 overnight, taking its monthly loss to a staggering 20.40%.

• Karoon Energy fell 5.84% to $1.29
• Amplitude Energy dipped 6.32% to $1.29
•  Beach Energy slid 3.20% to $0.83.

Financial sector

• Judo Capital shares dived 38.44% to $0.95 after the small-business lender revealed a spike in bad loans and rising risk-management costs. While the bank attributed three specific bad loans to ‘customer-specific’ developments, the news sent shockwaves through the market on fears of a broader economic slowdown hitting the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector.

Materials sector

Illustrating this, copper futures slipped 3.25% overnight to $5.94:

• Capstone Copper down 6.86% to $13.18
• Sandfire Resources 2.54% lower to $19.17.

Gold also felt the heat, finishing 2.71% lower at $3999 overnight after hitting an eight-month low of $3959 earlier in the session. The yellow metal is now down 11.80% for the month and sits roughly 29% below its record high of $5602. Local bullion plays followed suit:

• Pantoro dropped 7.25% to $2.36
• Catalyst Metals tumbled 6.16% to $5.25
• Resolute Mining fell 5.34% to $0.97.

In Asia, iron ore futures eased further to $98.20, consolidating their fall below the psychological $100-per-tonne mark. This weighed heavily on the big miners:

• Mineral Resources dropped 2.20% to $64.41
• Rio Tinto fell 2.40% to $169.76
• Fortescue lost 1.14% to $19.03
• BHP Group slipped 1.30% to $58.72, on track for its lowest close in five weeks, a sharp reversal from the record high of $65.98 it hit just over a week ago.

ASX 200 technical analysis

Early last week, the index hit a nine-week high of 8983.8. Provided any pullback from the 8983.8 high holds above a band of support at 8800 - 8780ish (includes the 200-day moving average at 8782, which it is currently testing), it keeps open a test and break of the mid-April 9021.5 high.

Be aware that if the ASX 200 were to fall below support at 8800 - 8780 on a sustained basis, it would be an initial indication the recent break higher has failed and raise the risk of a deeper pullback towards the lower end of the recent range.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 25 June 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}