Australia 200 afternoon report
The ASX 200 remains resilient as Wall Street faces volatility. Major earnings reports and the upcoming CPI release are in focus, with significant movement in lithium stocks highlighting market dynamics.
The Australia 200 trades 5 points (0.06%) lower at 9020 as of 3.10pm AEDT.
The ASX 200 looks set to close near the flat line today, shaking off a negative session on Wall Street. Losses on Wall Street came as investors played another round of 'whack-a-mole', identifying potential losers from artificial intelligence (AI) disruption. Renewed uncertainty over United States (US) trade policy also weighed on US equity markets.
The outperformance of the ASX 200 comes after the Supreme Court of the US struck down President Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, which have since been replaced by a 15% global tariff under Section 122. This is positive news for the Australian economy and the ASX 200, following yesterday's 'shoot first, ask questions later' type session.
How tariff changes benefit the ASX 200:
Firstly, this move will result in the average level of tariffs being reduced, which is a positive for global growth. US investment bank Morgan Stanley estimates replacing IEEPA with Section 122 lowers headline tariffs from approximately 13% to 11%, while Goldman Sachs views it as reducing the effective tariff rate from just over 10% to 9%.
Secondly, one of the major beneficiaries of the Supreme Court decision is expected to be China, the world’s second-largest economy and Australia's largest trading partner. China is predicted to see a net reduction in tariffs of roughly 5 to 8 percentage points compared to the pre-ruling IEEPA peak, suggesting potential upside risks to the Chinese and global economy. This reduction should more than offset the increase in the Australian tariff rate from 10% to 15%.
It was another busy day of earnings featuring the following highlights.
Tomorrow's key release is the January monthly consumer price index (CPI) at 11.30am AEDT, with markets closely watching for evidence of cooling in headline and trimmed-mean inflation. A busy earnings calendar continues, with Iress, Woolworths, Flight Centre, Bapcor, and Domino’s Pizza due to report.
Beyond earnings reports, ASX-listed lithium miners surged today on renewed optimism around lithium prices, which have rebounded sharply due to tightening supply and stronger-than-expected demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS).
We are currently neutral on the ASX 200, needing a sustained break above resistance at 9115 - 9125 to pave the way for further gains towards 9400 - 9500.
Until then, allow for consolidation and rotation below the 9115 - 9125 resistance zone.
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