22 January 2026

The Australia 200 trades 63 points (0.73%) higher at 8846 as of 3:30 pm AEDT.

Easing geopolitical tensions lift ASX 200

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) is poised to snap a three-day losing streak in impressive fashion today, fuelled by a thaw in geopolitical tensions surrounding the Arctic region.

The de-escalation followed by a social media announcement this morning that a 'framework' deal had been reached with NATO. With details light, it is too early to confirm if the deal fully delivers on the US administration's core objectives or whether Greenland simply joins the long list of Trump's TACOs.

Domestic labour market surprises

Domestically, today's labour force report for December delivered a sharp upside surprise. Employment in Australia surged by 65,000, coming in well above the expected 30,000 gain. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.3%, defying expectations of a rise to 4.4%, while the participation rate held steady at 66.7%.

While monthly labour force data can be volatile, this report aligns with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) assessment that conditions remain tight. It also validates feedback from RBA liaisons suggesting that a significant share of firms continue to experience difficulty sourcing labour.

The impact of the 'monster' jobs report was immediate: the market-implied probability of an RBA rate hike at the 3 February board meeting has jumped to 60%, with a full 25 basis points (bp) hike now fully priced in by May. While such a shift in rate expectations would typically weigh on the ASX 200, the market brushed it off today like water off a duck's back.

ASX 200 stocks

Energy sector

Energy stocks surged after crude oil jumped 2% overnight to $60.70, buoyed by Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil declaring force majeure on deliveries after fires at power generation facilities disrupted operations at the Tengiz and Korolev fields.

• Beach Energy jumped 5.09% to $1.19
• Santos lifted 4.37% to $6.32
• Woodside Energy rose 2.72% to $24.16.

Financial sector

The ASX 200 financial sector recouped all of yesterday’s 1.58% loss and then some, as buyers stepped in to capitalise on recent weakness.

• NAB lifted 3.04% to $42.45
• CBA gained 2.07% to $150.26
• Westpac rose 2.02% to $38.88
• ANZ added 0.91% to $36.50.

Gold stocks

Gold stocks were hammered as the de-escalation in US-NATO tensions triggered profit-taking in safe havens, sending the metal 0.75% lower back below $4800.

• Northern Star Resources dived 8.60% to $26.13
• Regis Resources dumped 7.66% to $7.59,
• Capricorn Metals dipped 5.12% to $14.90.

Materials sector

• Fortescue dropped 4.64% to $21.59 after its December quarterly production report disappointed; while the company reported record iron ore shipments, this was overshadowed by a sharp rise in costs
• BHP fell 0.62% to $48.18
• Rio Tinto extended yesterday's gains, rising 1% to $151.70.

ASX 200 technical analysis

From the 8383 low struck on 21 November, the ASX 200 rebounded 531 points (6.3%) into Friday’s 8915.5 high – a move in line with our bullish expectations.

This week’s pullback from the 8915.5 high has held above trendline support at 8750, coming from the November 8383 low, which keeps the uptrend intact and leaves open a retest and break above the 8915.5 high.

However, a sustained break below the 8750-support area would be a negative development and open the way for a deeper decline, initially towards the 200-day moving average at 8622.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 22 January 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}