The ASX 200 declines as Budget fallout and banking risks weigh on markets, while miners benefit from higher copper and iron ore prices.
The Australia 200 trades 23 points (-0.27%) lower at 8606 as of 2.15pm AEST.
The ASX 200 is staring down its fifth consecutive session in the red, and a bruising 17th decline in the past 21 trading days, as the aftershocks from Tuesday night’s Federal Budget and Commonwealth Bank’s trading update continue to weigh on sentiment. This week’s pressure has been further compounded by a flurry of profit warnings from major companies, the lingering chill of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate‑hiking cycle, and persistent fuel‑security concerns.
Against the chilly local backdrop, attention has turned to China today, where President Xi Jinping warmly welcomed United States (US) President Donald Trump. Xi sounded upbeat, emphasising that the two nations share ‘more common interests than differences’ and should approach each other as ‘partners, not rivals’. Markets will be scrutinising these high‑level talks for evidence of this, particularly concerning China’s weapons sales to Iran and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite a modest 0.60% rise in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures today to $101.65, energy stocks are trading mostly lower, taking an optimistic view that talks in China will lead to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Australia’s major banks have seen a mixed session as investors continue to assess the tax changes unveiled in Tuesday night’s Budget. With residential mortgages making up approximately 45% - 50% of the big four’s total assets, any sustained softening in property prices driven by these tax adjustments raises risks around mortgage stress and potential bad debts.
The big mining stocks have extended their strong run as copper futures reached fresh highs overnight, while iron ore futures held steady around $110 per tonne.
ASX 200 information technology (IT) sector is on track for its ninth month of declines in the past 10, as selling pressure in this growth‑oriented space continues.
After rebounding sharply from its late‑March low of 8262, ASX 200 broke above its 200‑day moving average (MA) on 7 April. Since then, the index has spent the past five weeks trading in a well‑defined sideways range, oscillating roughly 200 points either side of the 200‑day MA, which currently sits at 8804.
While the base case is for this consolidation to continue until there is greater clarity around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, several key levels are worth keeping in mind.
On the upside, a sustained break above range highs and resistance at 9020 - 9030 would signal the uptrend has resumed and open the path toward a retest of the all‑time high at 9202. On the downside, a decisive break below range lows and support at 8620 - 8600 would indicate a deeper pullback towards 8500 is underway.
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