ASX 200 report:
12 March 2026

The Australia 200 trades 145 points (1.67%) lower at 8597 as of 3.00pm AEDT.

ASX 200 takes a hit: geopolitical tensions and energy price surge

The ASX 200 has sustained a second significant blow this week, plunging 147 points (1.69%) to a low of 8596.5, as the brief calm over global markets in the past two sessions erupted into chaos this morning.

This drop followed reports of multiple tankers loaded with Iraqi crude oil burning in the Persian Gulf off Basra, a direct and forceful Iranian response to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) announcement of a massive strategic reserve release aimed at cooling runaway prices.

Simultaneously, reports emerged that Oman had evacuated all ships from its key export terminal at Mina Al Fahal in the Gulf of Oman, one of the last remaining ports through which Middle Eastern crude can reach global markets, following a new wave of drone attacks.

Oil price surge affects Australian households

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reacted violently, surging almost 10% from yesterday’s New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) close of $87.25 to an intraday high of $95.97, sending equities into turmoil, a stark reminder that the energy complex and geopolitical developments remain dominant influences.

In such a market, when it rains, it truly pours. The escalating turmoil from the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices now appears set to tighten its grip on Australian households, amplifying cost-of-living pressures at a time when inflation remains stubbornly sticky.

This week’s rise in consumer inflation expectations, now at multi-year highs, alongside hawkish commentary from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, has triggered an aggressive repricing in Australian interest rates markets towards additional tightening.

The Australian rates market is now pricing in around 19 basis points (bp) of hikes for next week’s board meeting, equating to roughly a 75% probability of a 25 bp increase that would lift the cash rate from its current 3.85% to 4.10%. Looking further ahead, the curve embeds approximately 69 bp of cumulative tightening by the end of 2026, aligning closely with expectations for three 25 bp hikes in total, which would push the cash rate to 4.60% by year-end, its highest level since October 2011.

ASX 200 stocks

Energy sector

The energy sector was the only sector in the green, adding 1.90%.

• Ampol, which added 3.26% to $30.38
• Beach Energy lifted 2.47% to $1.14
• Santos rose 1.69% to $7.50
• Woodside gained 1.58% to $30.90.

Materials sector

Despite a rally in iron ore prices above $105 per tonne in Asia, the large iron ore miners were unable to withstand the broad-based selling.

• Mineral Resources dipped 3.18% to $58.40
• BHP lost 2.11% to $50.87
• Rio Tinto fell 1.95% to $152.27
• Fortescue dropped 1.35% to $19.71.

Real estate sector

Expectations of a more aggressive RBA rate hiking cycle hit the ASX 200 real estate sector hard, pushing it to its lowest level in 11 months.

• Charter Hall lost 4.28% to $19.14
• Goodman Group fell 3.03% to $26.25
• Mirvac Group slipped 2.77% to $1.84.

Technology sector

The information technology (IT) sector found itself squarely at the centre of today’s market turmoil.

• Appen dropped 6.16% to $1.68
• Zip slid 5.56% to $1.61
• Megaport fell 5.15% to $7.45
• Life360 dropped 4.39% to $20.48.

ASX 200 technical analysis

From the ASX 200's high of 9202.9 a week ago, the index fell 745 points (8.1%) to Monday’s low of 8457.2.

To negate the technical damage from this sell-off, the ASX 200 must reclaim, on a sustained basis, the 200-day moving average currently at 8771 if it has serious ambitions to retest last week’s record high.

Until then, a retest of the 8457 - 8383 support level is possible.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 12 March 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}