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​​​​​​Nvidia stock price – volatility ahead as GTC conference looms?

​​Nvidia (NVDA) continued its impressive run on Monday, with shares up 3.47% ahead of the company's annual GTC conference.​

Nvidia Source: Bloomberg

​​​The tech giant has been on a tear, with its stock surging 267% over the past year and 79% year-to-date, fuelled by high demand for its cutting-edge AI chips and graphics cards.

​CEO to unveil new hardware?

​All eyes will be on CEO Jensen Huang during his keynote address, where he is expected to unveil Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture and the highly anticipated B100 graphics processor. Leaked information suggests the B100 will offer significantly improved performance for running large language models and other AI applications compared to Nvidia's current flagship H100 chip.

​In addition to hardware announcements, Huang will likely provide updates on Nvidia's CUDA software platform, which enables developers to leverage the company's GPU processing power for AI and other workloads. Maintaining a strong software ecosystem is key to Nvidia's enterprise strategy and customer lock-in.

​Possible new China chip to avoid export restrictions

​There are also reports that Nvidia may announce a new H20 AI chip designed specifically for the Chinese market, sidestepping U.S. export restrictions on its advanced H100 and H200 chips over concerns about potential military applications.

​All eyes on sector leader

​As the undisputed leader in AI hardware and software, all eyes are on Nvidia to maintain its blistering pace of innovation and product launches. Huang's GTC keynote will set the tone for the company's roadmap in the white-hot AI market.

​​Volatile week ahead for Nvidia stock price?

​Nvidia's options are implying a volatility index of 106.9%, translating into an expected stock move of +/- 82.58 points through the end of this week. Based on Friday's close of $878.37, this suggests the options market is pricing in a +/- 9.4% move in Nvidia's share price by the end of the week, as traders brace for potential volatility around the company's major GTC announcements.

​Nvidia stock price – technical analysis

​The Nvidia share price hit a record high at $974 on 8 March, close to the psychological $1,000 mark. Together with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the October 2022 to August 2023 advance, projected upwards from the October 2023 low, at $1,029.08 it represents the next upside target zone.

​Further up sits the 261.8% Fibonacci extension at $1,423. A slip through last week's low at $841.66 would likely lead to the 23 February high at $823.94 being revisited. Further down lie the 100% Fibonacci extension at $785.63 and the 2024 uptrend at $762.63. While this support zone underpins, the medium-term uptrend stays intact.

Nvidia daily chart Source: TradingView
Nvidia daily chart Source: TradingView

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