Skip to content

CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your deposits, so please consider our Risk Disclosure Notice and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

​​​EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD drop as RBA holds rates steady

​​Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD as the euro slips on brought forward rate cut expectations and the US dollar regains some recently lost ground.

Dollar Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD weighs on 200-day simple moving average

EUR/USD's reversal off Wednesday’s four-month high at $1.1017 on softer eurozone inflation, which brought forward European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut expectations to between 125 to 150 basis points (bps) next year, led to four straight days of losses and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0822 being slid through. A daily chart close below it would indicate that a top is being formed with the mid-September and early-November highs at $1.0769 to $1.0756 eyed.

​Minor resistance above the 22 November low at $1.0853 can be spotted at Monday’s $1.0886 high and also at Friday’s $1.0912 high.

Further up the $1.0945 late-August high also represents a possible resistance level, together with the 21 November high at $1.0965.

EURD/USD chart Source:
EURD/USD chart Source:

​EUR/GBP’s sharp reversal off its six-month high nears its mid-September low

​Over the past few weeks EUR/GBP has swiftly come off its six-month high at £0.8766 amid fresh signals that the ECB will start cutting interest rates before the Bank of England (BoE), following the latest comments from BoE’s hawks that interest rates may stay elevated for longer. In November the currency pair saw its biggest monthly loss since May.

​The early-June and mid-September lows at £0.857 to £0.8568 are now within reach and may offer short-term support, together with the late July low at £0.8545. If not, the July and August lows at £0.8504 to £0.8493 would be back in sight.

​Minor resistance now sits between the late-August high and the October low at £0.861 to £0.865.

EUR/GBP chart Source:
EUR/GBP chart Source:

AUD/USD comes off its 3 ½ month high

​Monday’s AUD/USD advance to a new 3 ½ month high at $0.6688 has been followed by a fall through its November-to-December uptrend line at $0.6626 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its rates unchanged at 4.35%, in line with market expectations.

​A drop towards the August, September and early November highs at $0.6523 to $0.6511 now seems to be on the cards. This support area is expected to hold, at least short-term, though. For now the 200-day SMA and Thursday’s low at $0.6608 to $0.6571 offer immediate support.

​Resistance comes in along the breached November-to-December accelerated uptrend line, because of inverse polarity a resistance line, at $0.6626.

AUD/USD chart Source:
AUD/USD chart Source:

The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.

Start trading forex today

Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market

  • Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse with clear, fast charts
  • Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps

See an FX opportunity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Take your position
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.