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Nasdaq rallies as the ASX 200 struggles for direction
As the Nasdaq continues its impressive rally by breaking key resistance levels, the ASX 200 remains in a consolidation phase, with commodities like crude oil and Bitcoin facing varying pressures from global market dynamics.
(AI video summary)
This video was created on 1 October 2025 for IG audiences by ausbiz.
Nasdaq continues bullish momentum
As the largest third-quarter percentage gain since 2010, the US Tech 100's (Nasdaq 100) rally, marked by Elliott Wave analysis, continues to extend. While still considered a fifth wave, the market has broken through key weekly resistance levels, aiming for targets as high as 25,000. The possibility of further gains is driven by investor fear of missing out (FOMO) as the year progresses.
ASX 200's sideways movement and correction signs
While the Australia 200 (ASX 200) saw declines in September, the quarter ended with a modest 3% to 3.5% gain. Compared to global indices like the Nasdaq and Nikkei225, the ASX 200 struggles at the 8800 level, lacking direction for a breakout. A potential break below 8730 may signal further declines to around 8680 to 8580, presenting buying opportunities in mid-October for a year-end rally.
Australian dollar and commodities
The Australian dollar is influenced by a hawkish hold from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and concerns over a potential United States (US) government shutdown. It remains within its five-month trend channel, bouncing from $0.65, with expectations to rise towards $0.67.
However, commodities present a mixed picture. . Crude oil faces potential surplus pressures, which may affect prices if the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) announces a production increase, possibly dropping oil prices below the $61.50 to $66 range.
Traditional gold has shown resilience, with a 16% increase since its August low, although caution is advised due to overbought conditions. Pullbacks present buying opportunities, highlighting gold's solid fundamentals.
Bitcoin's consolidation
On the other hand, Bitcoin shows hesitancy, failing to align with gold's trajectory. Waiting for Bitcoin to dip near its 200-day moving average, potentially down towards 100,000, could offer a chance to accumulate positions.
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