ASX 200 eases after RBA's hawkish hold

The Australia 200 trades 8 points (-0.10%) lower at 8854 as of 3.15pm AEST.

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) is poised to close lower today, ending its three-day winning streak after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold at 3.60% as widely expected and sounded more hawkish than anticipated.

RBA's economic outlook and rate decision

The RBA noted that 'both headline and trimmed-mean inflation were within the 2–3% range in the June quarter. Recent data, while partial and volatile, suggest that inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of the August Statement on Monetary Policy.'

The RBA also highlighted that private consumption is picking up and the housing market is strengthening, indicating that recent interest rate decreases are having an effect.

Regarding the labour market, the RBA stated that while 'employment has slowed by slightly more than expected,' various indicators suggest the labour market remains tight.

Potential factors for rate cut in November

Whether the RBA opts for a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in November will depend on the September labour force report due in mid-October and the crucial third-quarter (Q3) inflation print due on 29 October.

It was signs of cooling in the United States (US) labour market, specifically two weak non-farm payrolls employment reports in a row, which resulted in the Federal Reserve (Fed) switching its focus from inflation to resuming its rate-cutting cycle just a few weeks ago.

If we receive a cooler-than-expected Australian labour market in a fortnight's time (an unemployment rate of 4.3% or higher), followed by a Q3 trimmed-mean print within the range of 0.7 – 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), we expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 bp in November.

Conversely, a 4.2% unemployment rate in mid-October, followed by a 0.9% trimmed-mean reading, is likely to keep the RBA on hold through the year-end.

ASX 200 stocks

Energy sector

Returning to the ASX 200, the energy sector was the worst-performing today after crude oil finished 3.08% lower overnight at $63.18. This drop came as Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports over the weekend and reports suggested that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies (OPEC+) is likely to approve a 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in production for November at its meeting this weekend.

• Beach Energy dropped 2.95% to $1.15
• Santos fell 2.4% to $6.73
• Woodside Energy lost 2% to $22.99.

Gold stocks

Gold stocks extended their gains after bullion hit a new record high today of $3870.

• Capricorn Metals gained 3.07% to $13.26
• Resolute Mining added 2.53% to $1.01
• Northern Star Resources lifted 1.62% to $23.82.

ASX 200 technical analysis

The heavy fall in the ASX 200 at the start of this month, followed by the past three weeks of consolidation, has helped the ASX 200 reduce overbought readings after its run of new highs in August.

As long as the ASX 200 remains below the mid-September 8888 high, another leg lower is expected to complete its recent correction from the 9054 high towards the 8600 – 8580 target area. If this correction plays out as anticipated, it will amount to a 5% pullback from the 9054.5 record high, at which point fresh long positions should be considered.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 30 September 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}