Australia 200 afternoon report: 15 July 2025

The Australia 200 trades 46 points (0.54%) higher at 8616 as of 2.45pm AEST.

Australia 200 nears record high amid Wall Street optimism

The Australia 200 (ASX 200) is poised for a record closing high today, supported by fresh all-time highs on Wall Street overnight as traders position for the unofficial start of the second quarter (Q2) 2025 earnings season. Banking giants JPMorgan, BlackRock, Citibank, and Wells Fargo are scheduled to report tonight before the United States (US) market opens.

Following a booming first quarter (Q1) 2025 earnings season, which saw earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12% year-on-year (YoY), expectations for Q2 EPS growth are approximately 4.8%. The bar is considered low enough that corporate America should clear it comfortably.

ASX tech stocks rally on Nvidia China chip deal

The Australia 200’s upward momentum was further amplified by technology stocks, following reports that Nvidia is set to resume H2O artificial intelligence (AI) chip sales to China. This comes after chief executive officer (CEO) Jensen Huang’s recent meetings with US President Donald Trump and Chinese officials. The move will reverse April’s restrictions, which have cost Nvidia billions of dollars.

Australian consumer sentiment improves

Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s decision not to implement back-to-back interest rate cuts, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6% to 93.1 in July. Nevertheless, consumer sentiment remains in ‘cautiously pessimistic’ territory as households continue to deal with high debt and restrictive monetary policy settings.

Chinese GDP and housing data disappoints

Turning to China, economic data released today raised concerns. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2% YoY in Q2r, slightly above the 5.1% forecast. However, this growth was largely driven by strong fiscal support and the front-loading of production and exports to the US ahead of proposed tariffs. With these tailwinds expected to fade in the second half (H2) of 2025, Chinese GDP growth is forecast to slow to 4.5%.

In addition, new home prices across 70 Chinese cities fell by 3.2% YoY in June, marking the 24th consecutive month of contraction.

Australia 200 stocks

Technonolgy sector

• Life360 surged 7.48% to $35.07
• Block rose 5.32% to $103.97
• Appen lifted 4.65% to $1.12
• DroneShield jumped 9.1% to $3.54, a new all-time high

Mining sector

Key iron ore-related miners dropped in response:

• Mineral Resources fell 1.5% to $27.48
• Rio Tinto slipped 1.45% to $110.09
• Fortescue dropped 1.4% to $16.67
• BHP declined 1.3% to $39.22, remains capped below the $40 resistance level for a fourth consecutive month.

Retail stocks

Key retail stocks traded lower:

• Kogan fell 2.35% to $3.94
• Myer dropped 1.59% to $0.62
• Adairs declined 1.4% to $2.11
• Domino’s Pizza lost 1.3% to $18.08
• Premier Investments slipped 1.2% to $19.93

Banking sector

• Macquarie gained 1.1% to $223.76
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose 0.36% to $179.38
• Westpac added 0.33% to $33.67
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group edged up 0.28% to $30.16
• National Australia Bank fell slightly by 0.05% to $39.64

Australia 200 technical analysis

The 2.5% pullback from the 8639 record high into the recent 8421.1 low helped the index work off overbought readings and was orderly, indicating the move lower was likely part of a correction rather than the start of an impulsive move lower.

In summary, providing the Australia 200 holds above support at 8420 - 8400 (sustained basis as always), the view is the correction from the 8639 high is complete at the 8421.1 low and that a retest and break of the 8639 high will likely be forthcoming before a push to 8800.

Aware that a sustained break of support at 8420 - 8400 would indicate a pullback towards the 200-day moving average at approximately 8250 is underway.

Australia 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 15 July 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}