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Thursday sees the European Central Bank (ECB) return to the fold, with its latest monetary policy decision likely to be overshadowed by the rhetoric and sentiment around the future path of rates. The likeliness of a shift in actual policy is minimal, with markets instead focussing in on updated staff projections and the tone set by Mario Draghi in his statement and Q&A session.
Looking at the next move from the ECB, it is likely the current QE programme will need to be wound down at some point. Given the fact the EBC extended the current asset purchase programme until December 2017, there is also a chance we will see the scheme extended once more later this year. Until then, the only action that looks to be the focus of investors will be the potential for a tapering of the current programme. Mario Draghi certainly has a penchant for talking up the possibility of further easing, thus sparking a devaluation of the euro. The EUR/USD chart below highlights that there is typically a move lower for the euro around the announcement, yet this does not necessarily last.
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