Technical analyst, Trevor Neil, drills down to explain why there has been this rise in indices and, using the chart of Netflix, looks at a good example in the parabolic move up for technology stocks.
Neil explains that there are ways to use hedging trades to ensure that you can remain ‘long indices’ while, at the same time, trade a recognised exchange traded fund (ETF) or index that can offer protection, should there be a sharp reversal.
Defensive strategies should, according to Neil, be as much a part of a trading plan as the idea of following trends.
- sell short S&P futures, options, short S&P ETF or even ultras
- sector rotation
- theme rotation
- volatility spike protection
The rise in the S&P 500 has been broad based, but a sizable minority, shown in the bullet points below, have been responsible for the ‘parabolic’ price action recently.
Among the S&P 500 components:
- 117 have double-digit total returns
- 232 have beaten the market with total returns of 6.4% or more
- 408 have shown positive returns
- one is flat
- 35 are down 5% or more, including five that are down 10% or more
Neil also uses relative rotation graphs (RRGs) to anticipate where future moves could develop. Here, he says, that the information technology sector (labelled as S5INFT on the chart below), on the S&P 500, is fast moving from the yellow, or ‘weakening’ quadrant, into the ‘lagging’ red quadrant on the bottom left, an area where stocks become underperforming.