Where to next for the Palantir share price?
In early February Palantir exceeded Q4 expectations with 70% revenue growth, but high valuation multiples and tech sector volatility created mixed investor sentiment despite strong execution.
Palantir delivered record growth but valuation debate intensified after earnings beat
Palantir Technologies delivered a strong fourth quarter (Q4) earnings report on 2 February 2026, posting results that exceeded Wall Street expectations and highlighted continued demand for its data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) software, particularly within US commercial and government segments.
The company reported revenue of about $1.41 billion, representing roughly 70% year-over-year (YoY) growth, comfortably above consensus forecasts, while adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share also beat estimates.
The company’s share price initially rallied by over 10% in after-hours trading before rapidly falling to its July 2025 $128.51 low, surprising many analysts and investors.
Technical analysis of the Palantir share price
Several technical analysts point to a head and shoulders top forming on the Palantir share price with the breached neckline – now a resistance line at $152.38 – acting as potential resistance.
More importantly the two weekly chart closes below the neckline confirm that a head and shoulders top has indeed been formed. In technical analysis parlance it means that the Palantir share price now has a downside target of around $90, the vertical distance from the head at the $207.52 November 2025 peak to the neckline at $146.67, projected downwards from the neckline at the break point at $151.39.
Palantir weekly candlestick chart
This bearish technical downside target is expected to remain in play while no bullish reversal takes the Palantir share price above its post-earnings 3 February high at $165.08.
Palantir daily candlestick chart
A fall through the July 2025 and early February low at $128.32 - $128.51 on a daily chart closing basis would likely lead to the February 2025 high at $125.41 and the late May to June 2025 lows at $119.41 - $118.93 being reached next. If fallen through, the May 2025 trough at $105.32 represents another potential downside target.
Strong revenue growth across segments
Revenue strength was underpinned by robust sales to US businesses and expanded government contracts, signalling that enterprise adoption of Palantir’s platforms - bolstered by AI-driven analytics - remains on an accelerated trajectory.
In the immediate aftermath of the report, Palantir’s share price jumped as much as 11% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the top-line beat and bullish guidance for 2026, with forecasts pointing to continued double-digit revenue expansion.
Analysts noted that Palantir’s position as a provider of mission-critical software - especially its AI-embedded platforms used across defence, intelligence and increasingly the commercial sector - continues to differentiate it from traditional enterprise software peers.
Mixed market reaction despite strong results
However, the market reaction has been negative in the days following the earnings release. Despite the strong operating performance, Palantir’s share price has pulled back from recent highs, weighed down by broader tech sector volatility and concerns over high valuation multiples for AI-linked software stocks.
Commentary in financial media highlights that while Palantir’s execution remains impressive, its high valuation - which at times has priced in exceptionally rapid future growth - continues to fuel debate among investors about whether the premium is justified.
Diverging analyst views on valuation
Investor sentiment has also been shaped by diverging analyst views. Some market participants point to Palantir’s expanding contract pipeline and rising average deal size, particularly as the company shifts towards larger, long-term commercial agreements that embed AI capabilities deeply within customer operations. This dynamic has been strong enough to prompt upgrades from certain brokerages, with analysts citing a strategic shift toward bigger AI-related deals and an improved outlook for 2026 revenue exceeding $7 billion.
Others remain cautious, noting that the stock’s high multiple leaves it vulnerable to sentiment swings if growth moderates or if AI spending priorities shift among enterprise customers.
This divergence in views reflects a broader pattern in the tech landscape, where investors are increasingly distinguishing between execution quality and near-term earnings prospects versus long-term valuation risk amid intensifying competition for AI budgets.
According to LSEG Data & Analytics, analysts are broadly split on Palantir, with around half having a ‘strong buy’ or ‘buy’ rating and the other half a ‘hold’, ‘sell’ or even ‘strong sell’ rating, averaging a long-term consensus price target of $189.23, implying around 44% upside from current levels as of 16 February 2026.
Palantir LSEG Data & Analytics chart
Palantir has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘5 neutral’ but a ‘buy’ rating.
Palantir TipRanks Smart Score chart
Controversial contracts attract scrutiny
Beyond the financials, Palantir’s positioning in geopolitically sensitive sectors - including controversial government contracts - continues to attract scrutiny from both regulators and public stakeholders.
Recent media coverage highlighted debates over certain surveillance-related contracts, underscoring the complex environment in which the company operates as it expands into new markets and applications.
What's ahead for Palantir
In summary, Palantir’s latest earnings report reinforced the company’s accelerated growth trajectory and AI-driven demand, but also underscored the ongoing valuation debate that has accompanied its rapid rise.
While strong execution and diversified revenue streams bode well for future quarters, investor focus will remain on sustaining growth, converting large-scale contracts into predictable recurring revenue, and aligning market expectations with the company’s long-term strategic roadmap.
How to trade or invest in Palantir
Investors interested in Palantir exposure have several options given the company's volatility. Here's how to approach trading or investing:
- Research Palantir's latest earnings, product developments and competitive positioning thoroughly. Understanding AI software market dynamics and government contracting helps inform investment decisions. Trading for beginners provides useful background.
- Choose whether you want to trade or invest in Palantir. Spread betting and CFD trading allow speculation on both rising and falling prices.
- Open an account with a broker offering access to US stocks including New York Stock Exchange listings.
- Search for Palantir on your chosen trading platform. The company trades under ticker PLTR on the New York Stock Exchange.
- Place your trade based on analysis and risk tolerance. Use stop-loss orders to manage downside risk, particularly with volatile growth stocks experiencing valuation debates.
Remember that Palantir represents a high-risk, high-volatility investment with substantial valuation uncertainty. Only invest capital you can afford to lose, and maintain diversification across sectors alongside any individual growth stock holdings.
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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