Vodafone and BT earnings preview: restructuring efforts under scrutiny

UK telecom sector facing structural challenges

​As the UK telecom giants Vodafone and BT prepare to release their fiscal year 2025 results, investors are closely monitoring their strategic shifts and financial performances amid industry challenges.

​The telecommunications landscape has undergone significant transformation in recent years, with traditional revenue streams coming under pressure and the need for substantial infrastructure investment continuing to weigh on profitability. Both Vodafone and BT have responded with ambitious restructuring programmes.

​Against this challenging backdrop, both companies are scheduled to release their results in the coming days, with Vodafone Group announcing FY25 results on Tuesday, May 20, 2025, and BT Group reporting FY25 earnings on Thursday, May 22, 2025.

​Vodafone's strategic pivot and market challenges

​Vodafone's FY25 performance is anticipated to reflect the impact of its ongoing restructuring efforts and market dynamics. The company has been aggressively reshaping its portfolio to focus on core markets and reduce debt.

​Analysts project FY25 revenues of approximately €38.09 billion for Vodafone, up 3.74%, with consensus estimates suggesting earnings per share (EPS) of €0.08. These modest expectations reflect the transitional nature of the company's current position as it implements significant structural changes.

​According to LSEG Data & analytics, 2 analysts have a ‘strong buy’ recommendation for Vodafone, 2 a ‘buy’, 12 a ‘hold’, 3 a ‘sell’ and 1 a ‘strong sell’ with a median long-term upside target at 82.87p, 2.6% below its current share price (as of 19/05/2025).

Vodafone LSEG Data & Analytics chart

Vodafone has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘6 Neutral’ and is rated as a ‘hold’ with 2 ’buy’, 5 ‘hold’ and 1 ‘sell’ recommendation (as of 19/05/2025).

Vodafone TipRanks Smart Score chart

​Vodafone has faced revenue declines in its largest market, Germany, due to regulatory changes affecting bundled services. This weakness in a key region has placed additional pressure on management to deliver results from its restructuring initiatives.

​The company is undergoing significant reorganisation, including the sale of its Italian and Spanish operations and a merger with Three UK, aiming to streamline operations and reduce debt. Progress updates on these transactions will be closely scrutinised, particularly any regulatory hurdles that might delay completion.

​Vodafone's technology partnerships and growth initiatives

​Beyond portfolio restructuring, Vodafone has been pursuing strategic partnerships to enhance its technological capabilities and service offerings in an increasingly competitive marketplace.

​A 10-year strategic partnership with Microsoft has been established to enhance customer experience through artificial intelligence (AI) and expand digital services, particularly in Europe and Africa. Investors will be looking for early indications of how this collaboration is progressing and any tangible benefits.

​Vodafone Business, the enterprise-focused division, has shown more resilience than the consumer segment and could provide a bright spot in the results. Any growth in IoT connections and enterprise services would be viewed positively as indicators of diversification beyond traditional telecoms services.

​Africa remains a key growth region for Vodafone through its majority stake in Vodacom. Performance metrics from African operations, particularly mobile money services and data usage growth, will provide insights into the company's prospects in emerging markets.

​BT's focus on core infrastructure and services

​BT's upcoming earnings are expected to showcase its efforts to refocus on core broadband and mobile services while managing cost challenges. The company continues to invest heavily in its network infrastructure while seeking efficiencies elsewhere.

​Analysts anticipate revenues around £5.12 billion for FY25, with consensus estimates pointing to an EPS of 14.2 pence. These projections reflect the company's gradual transition toward a more focused business model prioritising connectivity services.

​BT has 4 LSEG Data & Analytics analysts ‘strong buy’ recommendations, 8 ‘buy’, 3 ‘hold’, 4 ‘sell’ and 1 a ‘strong sell’ with a median long-term upside target at 182.39p, approximately 10% above its current share price (as of 19/05/2025).

BT LSEG Data & Analytics chart

​BT is addressing a £100 million increase in costs due to changes in employer National Insurance contributions and minimum wage hikes, leading to intensified cost transformation strategies and potential pricing adjustments. The effectiveness of these cost control measures will be a key area of focus in the results.

​Network expansion remains central to BT's strategy, with continued investment in expanding its full-fibre and 5G networks aimed at strengthening its market position despite revenue pressures. Progress updates on fibre deployment targets and 5G coverage will be closely watched by investors.

​BT's portfolio refinement and sports broadcasting exit

​BT has been streamlining its operations to focus on its core telecommunications services, moving away from adjacent areas that have proven less profitable or strategically relevant.

​The company is nearing a deal to sell its 50% stake in TNT Sports to Warner Bros. Discovery, marking a strategic exit from sports broadcasting to concentrate on its primary services. Any updates on the timing and financial implications of this transaction will be significant for investor sentiment.

​Openreach, BT's infrastructure division, continues to be a focal point for investors. Its performance metrics, particularly around fibre connections and wholesale revenue growth, provide crucial insights into the company's long-term value proposition in an increasingly digital economy.

​BT's Enterprise division, serving business customers, has faced challenges in recent quarters amid a competitive landscape. Signs of stabilisation in this segment would be welcomed by investors concerned about erosion in this traditionally profitable area.

​Dividend outlook and capital allocation

​For income-focused investors, dividend policies and capital allocation strategies will be key areas of interest in both companies' results announcements.

​Vodafone's dividend yield, currently at 7.93% (as of 19 May 2025), has been a significant attraction for investors, though there have been persistent questions about its sustainability given the company's debt levels and investment requirements. Any commentary on future dividend policy in light of the ongoing restructuring will be closely scrutinised.

​BT's dividend, currently at 4.86% (as of 19 May 2025), has been more modest as the company prioritises network investment, but management has previously signalled intentions to grow shareholder returns over time. Updates on the balance between capital expenditure and shareholder remuneration will be important factors in the market's response to the results.

​Both companies face the challenge of balancing three competing demands on their cash flows: investing in network infrastructure, reducing debt levels, and rewarding shareholders through dividends. How management teams articulate their approach to this balancing act will influence investor perceptions.

​How to trade Vodafone and BT shares

​For traders and investors looking to position themselves ahead of these important earnings announcements, IG offers several approaches to gain exposure to these UK shares:

1. ​Research both telecoms companies thoroughly, examining their financial performance, strategic positioning and market outlook to inform your trading decisions.
2. ​Decide whether you want to trade or invest based on your view of the telecom sector and these specific companies.
3. ​Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. ​Search for 'Vodafone' or 'BT Group' on our trading platform or app.
5. ​Place your trade, ensuring you have appropriate risk management measures in place given the potential volatility around earnings announcements.

​For short-term traders looking to capitalise on price movements around the results, spread betting and CFD trading offer leveraged exposure to these shares, allowing you to take positions on both rising and falling prices.

​For those with a longer-term view who see value in these telecom giants as they navigate their strategic transitions, share dealing provides a straightforward way to build positions and potentially benefit from both share price appreciation and dividend income.

​Both Vodafone and BT are navigating complex market conditions with strategic initiatives aimed at long-term stability and growth. Investors will be keenly observing the upcoming earnings reports for insights into the effectiveness of these strategies and their impact on financial performance.

​The telecommunications sector's central role in modern digital economies provides a compelling long-term growth thesis, but the path to capturing this value remains challenging for incumbent operators like Vodafone and BT. These upcoming results will provide important indicators of whether their transformation strategies are beginning to deliver the intended results.​​