US equities rebound, but CPI looms large after hot jobs data

Robust payrolls report lifts equities as Fed outlook shifts

United States (US) equity markets closed mostly higher overnight, with the  Nasdaq leading the charge following last week’s sharp three-day, 6% sell-off that reached a crescendo on Friday after a blockbuster jobs report.

Recapping Friday’s jobs data, the numbers were robust. Non-farm payrolls rose 172,000 in May, blowing past expectations of a 93,000 gain, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Payroll growth was also revised higher by 64,000 for April and 29,000 for March, marking the strongest three-month advance in more than two years. In response, the US interest rates market aggressively pulled forward Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening expectations, with 27 basis points (bp) of hikes now priced in for December 2026.

AI IPO wave builds as mega listings dominate market focus

In initial public offering (IPO) news, ChatGPT creator OpenAI has filed confidentially for its much-anticipated public debut. Companies often file confidentially to work through Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) feedback privately and keep sensitive financial details under wraps until they are ready for the spotlight. OpenAI now joins the fast-growing queue of artificial intelligence (AI) giants heading to market, alongside Anthropic (which filed on 1 June) and SpaceX (on track to list as early as 12 June).

As a side note, IG’s pre-IPO market is currently pricing OpenAI at around a $1.37 trillion valuation, Anthropic near $1.63 trillion, and SpaceX at roughly $2.17 trillion on debut, still pointing to a solid +20% gain in SpaceX’s share price from the $135 offer price.

It is worth noting that only a portion of shares will float initially, so while these listings will grab headlines, the immediate cash raised remains in the low hundreds of billions rather than trillions. While this should ease fears over a large amount of liquidity being drawn out of the market, it will still create rotation and concentration risk over the longer term.

Looking ahead, the marquee event on the economic calendar is Wednesday’s US consumer price index (CPI) report for May (previewed below). Given the recent run of stronger economic data, this release has the potential to further amplify concerns around possible Fed rate hikes before year-end.

CPI

Date: Wednesday, 10 June at 1.30pm BST

For April, headline CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month (MoM), lifting the annual rate to 3.8%, its highest reading since May 2023 and up from 3.3% prior. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, increased 0.4% MoM, pushing its annual rate higher to 2.8% from 2.6%.

Energy, particularly gasoline, fuelled by Middle East tensions, along with sticky shelter costs, were the primary drivers of the stronger numbers, with goods prices also showing some reacceleration. For May, consensus expects a monthly headline gain of around 0.5%, which would see the annual rate climb to 4.2%. Core inflation is forecast to rise 0.3% MoM, taking the annual rate up to 2.9%.

Coming on the back of a string of stronger data in recent weeks, including Friday’s robust non-farm payrolls report, a stronger-than-expected CPI print would add to mounting fears of a Fed rate hike before year-end. This scenario would likely provide fresh support for the US dollar while putting renewed downward pressure on US equities.

US core CPI chart

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

From its late-March low of 22,841, the Nasdaq 100 staged an incredible rally, surging around 35% in just over nine weeks to hit a high of 30,762 last Wednesday night. In that context, the 6% pullback into the back end of last week was not a surprise. It was preceded by bearish relative strength index (RSI) divergence, which was partly behind our warning here that chasing the rally or giving in to fear of missing out (FOMO) was becoming increasingly risky.

From here, provided the Nasdaq 100 can hold above Friday night’s 28,929 low and the critical mid-May support at 28,567, we cannot rule out a retest and potential break of that 30,762 record high before a push towards 32,000.

However, should that mid-May 28,567 support level give way on a sustained basis, a deeper pullback into the 27,500 support region would likely come into play.

Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart

Dow Jones technical analysis

From its late-March low of 45,063, the Dow Jones staged an impressive rally, adding 14.50% in just over nine weeks to hit a record high of 51,665 last Friday night.

From here, provided the current retracement in the Dow Jones holds above a band of support in the 50,500 - 50,300 area, we cannot rule out a retest and potential break of that 51,665 record high before a push to 52,500.

However, should the 50,500 - 50,300 support band give way on a sustained basis, a deeper pullback into the 49,500 - 49,300 support band would likely come into play.

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 9 June 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}