US Equities Finish Higher as Eyes Shift to Earnings Season and CPI

US Equities Finish Higher as Eyes Shift to Earnings Season and CPI 

US equity markets closed last week on a positive note, buoyed by SK Hynix’s blockbuster debut and investors’ willingness to shrug off the latest geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. The Nasdaq 100 posted a solid 1.69% gain, the S&P 500 rose 1.23%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones lagged, slipping 263 points (-0.50%).

Despite the recent flare-up in the Middle East, the prevailing view — reinforced by a modest 3.7% gain in WTI crude this morning — is that this is merely an escalation within a fragile truce, not a full collapse of the ceasefire. As a result, the base case remains an uneven reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, with the current ceasefire expected to be rolled over for another 60 days when it expires in mid-August.

A key factor supporting this outlook is the lack of appetite in Washington for boots-on-the-ground involvement, combined with Tehran’s apparent reluctance to let the US extract itself cleanly from a conflict of its own making. Whether that assessment holds remains to be seen, but for now it looks as though crude oil is carving out a new trading range between the high $60s and high $70s.

Back in the US, this week’s calendar is packed. Earnings season kicks off in earnest Tuesday with results from banking heavyweights JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, followed by Morgan Stanley and BlackRock on Wednesday. The AI and semiconductor narrative will face an early test with updates from ASML on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday, while streaming giant Netflix reports the same day.

Meanwhile, Tuesday also brings a key US inflation update (previewed below), with markets set to scrutinise Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony for fresh signals on the central bank’s policy path.

Inflation Rate (CPI) MoM/YoY: Tuesday, July 14 at 10.30 PM 

The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 4.2% in May 2026, marking its highest level since April 2023 and up from 3.8% in April. This represented the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline inflation, driven largely by the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran. The core measure of inflation climbed to 2.9% YoY, from 2.8% prior.   

For June, the consensus is for headline inflation to ease modestly to 3.8% YoY, while core inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.9% YoY. Both readings would remain well above the Fed’s 2% target and highlight the persistent challenge facing policymakers as they navigate the interplay between geopolitical risks and domestic price pressures.

A hotter-than-expected print would likely bolster expectations of a Fed rate hike before year-end, while an in-line or softer outcome would lend support to Warsh’s comments two weeks ago that inflation pressures are easing.

The US rates market starts the week pricing in a 25% (approximately 7bp) chance of a hike next month, with a full 25bp rate hike for October now almost entirely priced in. 

Chart – US Core CPI

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

From its late-March low of 22,841, the Nasdaq 100 launched a 35% rally in just over nine weeks to reach a record high of 30,762 in early June. The rally was in line with our bullish calls, although it did hit the 30,000 target some six months earlier than we were expecting. In that context, the current pullback now nearing a sixth week is hardly surprising.

A decisive break and close above the 30,642–30,762 resistance zone would signal the correction is complete and open the way for a push towards 31,500/32,000. Conversely, a sustained break back below last week’s 28,814 low would open the door to a deeper pullback towards support 28,200/28,000 area, which we expect to hold (sustained basis) if tested. 

Nasdaq 100 Cash Daily Chart 

Dow Jones Cash Technical Analysis

From its late-March low of 45,063, the Dow Jones staged an impressive rally, surging 14.5% in just over nine weeks to reach a fresh record high of 51,665 in early June. After a brief pullback that found support at the psychologically important 50,000 level into Mid-June, the index regained momentum and hit fresh record high last week at 53,294.

Looking ahead, providing any dips in the Dow Jones hold above a band of support at 51,600/300, which includes the early June highs and late June lows, the uptrend remains in place and with it the possibility of a push towards 54,000.

Aware that if the Dow Jones were to lose the band of support 51,600/300 area it would indicate that a retest of support at 50,000 is underway.

Dow Jones Cash Daily Chart  

The figures stated are as of July 13th, 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.