Qantas FY26 earnings preview

Qantas overview

Qantas is Australia's largest airline group, operating full-service Qantas and low-cost Jetstar brands across domestic and international routes, alongside a high-margin Qantas Loyalty business (Frequent Flyer) and freight operations.

When will Qantas report its latest earnings?

Full-year (FY) results for the year ended 30 June 2026 are scheduled for Thursday, 27 August 2026.

The backdrop

In late February, Qantas delivered what looked at first glance to be a solid set of numbers – only for the market to turn on the stock in spectacular fashion:

• Revenue $12.9 billion, up 6%
• Underlying profit before tax (PBT) $1.46 billion, up 5% to a record
• Statutory profit after tax (NPAT) $925 million (broadly flat)
• Operating cash flow $1.8 billion
• Interim base dividend 19.8 cents per share ($300 million), up 20%, plus a $150 million share buyback

Qantas shares initially rose ~4% to a high of $11.09 before reversing sharply lower, finishing 9.20% down on the day at $9.67 and wiping roughly $1.5 billion off the company's market value.

The ugly reversal came as investors focused on the international division, where underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) fell 6% – 8% and missed consensus by a wide margin. Management commentary also flagged rising costs – airport charges, government fees, wages and engineering – that were running well ahead of inflation. The result left investors with unanswered questions about margin sustainability and the trajectory of the higher-cost international network.

Chief executive officer (CEO) Vanessa Hudson said: 'Despite the strong performance, we have seen a sharp increase in some costs like airport charges and Government fees, which have increased at double the rate of inflation over the past 12 months. We are offsetting these where possible through transformation and we're working across the industry to address what can be done to ensure this doesn't impact the ongoing affordability of air travel in this country.'

Qantas HY26 results

Highlights from the most recent update

In April, the Group issued a market update in response to the sharp rise in jet fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Refining margins had spiked dramatically, lifting the estimated second half (H2) FY26 fuel bill from around $2.5 billion to $3.1 billion – $3.3 billion.

In response, Qantas cut domestic capacity by around 5 percentage points in the June quarter, redeployed aircraft toward stronger European routes and raised fares. Domestic unit revenue guidance was lifted, helping to partially offset the higher costs, while the International division was expected to absorb a much larger hit. Overall, the earnings impact was estimated at around $500 million.

Capital expenditure was guided to the bottom end of the previous range (at or below $4.1 billion), with no change to the aircraft delivery schedule, and the planned $150 million share buyback was put on hold. After initially falling by 3.3% to a low of $8.67 following the update, the share price rallied back to close just 0.33% lower on the day at $8.98.

H1 FY26 fleet investment

What to expect from Qantas FY26 earnings

The focus will be on how successfully Qantas has managed the volatility in fuel prices through H2 – and how much of the estimated ~$500 million earnings impact was offset by higher fares and capacity discipline.

Investors will also want clarity on the performance of the International division, which took the brunt of the cost pressure, as well as the ongoing strength of Domestic and Loyalty. Any updated commentary on the outlook for FY27 – where management has already flagged that the first half is likely to remain challenging – plus progress on fleet renewal benefits and the balance sheet (net debt and capital returns) will round out the key areas of interest.

Key financial summary expectations

• Revenue: approximately $25.61 billion (up ~7.5% from $23.82 billion in FY25)
• Pre-tax profit: approximately $2.06 billion (down ~9% from the FY25 statutory pre-tax of $2.26 billion, and down ~14% from the FY25 Underlying PBT of $2.39 billion)
• Net income / Statutory NPAT: approximately $1.44 billion (down ~10% from $1.61 billion in FY25)
• Earnings per share (EPS): approximately 96.5 cents
• Dividend per share: approximately 40.5 cents (down from 52.8 cents in FY25)

Qantas underlying net profit chart

Qantas technical analysis

Looking at the weekly chart, Qantas has been in a clear corrective phase since the $12.62 high, struck back in August 2025.

From that peak, the stock has printed a series of lower highs, first at $11.09 and more recently around $10.80, with a descending trendline now capping the recovery attempts. The sharp sell-off after the February result took price down to the $8.04 area before a bounce developed.

That bounce has so far stalled beneath the descending trendline, and the stock is currently trading around $9.54. Immediate support sits near $9.30 coming from the November 2025 swing low, with stronger support further down in the $8.20 – $8.00 region, reinforced by the rising 200-week moving average (MA) at $7.80ish.

Given the challenging backdrop outlined above, we are expecting to see the correction in Qantas's share price to continue, with a break above $10.80 – $11.10 needed to suggest the corrective phase is ending and the uptrend has resumed. Until then, the path of least resistance remains sideways to lower, with the $9.30 level the key near-term pivot to watch.

Qantas weekly chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 19 August 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}