Nvidia Q1 2026 earnings preview:
what to expect amid AI boom

When will Nvidia report its latest earnings?

Nvidia is scheduled to report its first quarter (Q1) earnings for 2026 on Wednesday, 28 May 2025, after the market closes.

The backdrop

Nvidia's fourth quarter earnings results, released earlier this year, on February 26th, exceeded expectations.

• Earnings per share: $0.89 vs. $0.84 expected
• Revenue: $39.33 billion vs. $38.05 billion expected

Founder and CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang said "We've successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter. AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries."

Despite the positivity, Nvidia shares dropped 8.5% the next session, closing at $120.15 - the worst one-day decline since the DeepSeek sell-off on 27 January 2025.

While Nvidia posted strong results, investors accustomed to substantial earnings beats viewed the Q4 numbers as less impressive. Concerns arose due to the deceleration in revenue growth, which fell from a 94% year-on-year increase in Q3, and narrower margins due to the costs associated with launching new products, particularly the Blackwell architecture.

In fiscal Q4 2024, Nvidia's adjusted gross margin dropped to 73.5% from 75% in Q3. The company said it expects its adjusted gross margin to decrease to 71% in the current quarter as it scales up Blackwell production.

Additional factors contributing to the share price decline included worries about DeepSeek's impact on AI chip demand, tariff-related concerns, and conservative guidance compared to high-end forecasts.

Summary of Nvidia’s FY25 Q4 results

Key numbers to look for in Q1 2026

• Revenue: expected to be $43.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, representing a year-over-year increase of about 66% from $26.04 billion in Q1 2025

• Earnings per share (EPS): adjusted EPS is expected to be around $0.87–$0.88, a 44% increase from $0.61 in Q1 2025. This reflects strong profitability despite margin pressures

• Margins: Nvidia projects GAAP gross margins of 70.6% and non-GAAP gross margins of 71% (±50 basis points), down from Q4 2025's 73.5% due to the high costs of scaling Blackwell architecture production

• Data center revenue: forecasted at $39.2 billion, up 74% year-over-year, driven by demand for NVIDIA's GPUs from cloud service providers and AI infrastructure projects like the $500 billin Stargate Project, where NVIDIA is a key partner.

• Gaming revenue: expected to reach $2.8 billion, reflecting stable growth in Nvidia's traditional gaming segment

Factors shaping investor reactions

Close attention will be paid to the following factors which will shape investors reactions following the earnings report:

• Blackwell architecture performance and ramp-up

The Blackwell platform, which generated $11 billion in Q4 2025, is a focal point. Investors will scrutinise updates on its production scale and revenue contribution, as it's described as Nvidia's fastest product ramp ever.

Commentary on supply chain constraints or demand trends for Blackwell chips will be critical, especially given analyst estimates of $75.1 billion in data centre revenue for fiscal 2026, with Blackwell as a major driver.

• China exposure and export controls

Tightened US export restrictions on AI chips to China have impacted Nvidia. The company is reportedly looking to develop lower-cost, export-compliant chips to maintain access to the Chinese market and retain its shrinking foothold in China's $50 billion data centre market.

• Guidance for Q2 2026 and full-year outlook

Nvidia's forward guidance will be pivotal, as investors are showing hypersensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Analysts are looking for Q2 guidance of approximately $45.8 billion while looking for fiscal year 2026 revenue to reach approximately $198.8 billion, a significant jump from 2025's $130.5 billion, with EPS projected at $4.32.

• AI demand and competitive landscape (DeepSeek impact)

The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup developing models with less powerful chips, has raised questions about whether Big Tech's AI spending might shift away from Nvidia's high-end GPUs. CEO Jensen Huang has argued that DeepSeek's reasoning models will increase demand for Nvidia's Blackwell chips, but investors will seek reassurance that Nvidia's 98% market share in data centre GPUs remains secure.

• Tariff and macro risks

US tariffs and trade policies have weighed on Nvidia's share price. While chip imports were later exempted, any commentary on tariff impacts or supply chain resilience will influence investor confidence, especially given Nvidia's global supply chain exposure.

Is Nvidia a Buy or a Sell?

Nvidia has a TipRanks Smart Score of '6 Neutral' and is rated as a 'Buy' by analysts with 34 'Buy', 4 'Hold' and 1 'Sell' recommendations - as of 23rd of May 2025.

What does the options market say?

Nvidia shares are currently down 2.23% this year, last at $131.29, after reaching a high of $153.13 and a low of $86.62 in 2025. Ahead of this week's earnings report, the options market is pricing in elevated volatility, indicative of a potential +/- $11.00 move in either direction.

Based on Friday's close, this suggests the stock could fall to $120 or rise to $142 following its earnings release.

However, while there have been some outsized moves post Nvidia's earnings report including a 16.4% surge in February 2024, often the actual movement in Nvidia's share price has been less dramatic than implied by the options market.

Nvidia technical analysis

Nvidia's share price has endured a roller coaster ride this year, hitting a record high of $153.13 in early January, driven by optimism about its AI chip dominance and strong demand for its Blackwell platform.

However, a significant correction commenced shortly afterwards with its share price falling 16% in a single day on 27 January 2025, on concerns about competition from Chinese AI lab DeepSeek. The correction deepened after its Q4 2025 earnings report in late February disappointed before tariff and trade policy pressures pushed it to a low of $86.62 in early April.

Since then, Nvidia's share price has rebounded almost 60% from its April low, hitting a high of $137.40 last week. This move suggests the uptrend has likely resumed after the correction it experienced earlier this year.

Looking forward, the 200-day moving average (MA) at $126 shapes as important downside support, reinforced by the December 2024 low of $126.86. Below that, there is important horizontal support at $115.00, which we need to see hold to keep the uptrend from the $86.62 low intact.

On the topside, initial resistance is viewed at last week's $137.40 high, before a denser layer of resistance from the record high $153 area.

Nvidia daily chart