Nasdaq 100 tries to stabilise while USD/JPY stays above Y160 as Brent crude slips

​​​Macro update

Renewed Iran-US hostilities weigh on market sentiment: Asian equities came under heavy selling pressure after Iran's Revolutionary Guards reportedly launched attacks on a US base in Jordan and multiple Gulf targets, prompting retaliatory US strikes on Iranian air defence and radar installations near the Strait of Hormuz.

Asian stock markets retreat sharply: MSCI's Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan fell around 3%, while Japan's Nikkei declined 2% and South Korea's KOSPI dropped nearly 7%, as persistent weakness in AI-related shares continued to undermine investor confidence.

Wall Street closes lower as semiconductor stocks slide: The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq lost 1% on Tuesday after an attempted technology rebound faded, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling as much as 8.6% intraday before ending the session 1.9% lower.

Oil prices edge higher but remain contained: Brent crude and TWI gained slightly before coming off again as US President Trump downplayed the latest skirmishes. Analysts believe current prices do not yet reflect the risk of a prolonged supply disruption.

US inflation data takes centre stage: Markets are awaiting May CPI figures, with annual inflation expected to accelerate to 4.2%, its highest level since April 2023. Traders have now fully priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike by December, reversing expectations of interest rate cuts held before the conflict escalated.

Yen remains near intervention levels as gold weakens: The Japanese yen traded at 160.34 against the US dollar, close to levels seen as likely to trigger official intervention, while gold fell 2% to an 11-week low of $4,174.20 after Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated to a three-year high of 6.3% in May.

Nasdaq 100 bounces off this week's low

On Tuesday the Nasdaq 100 briefly dipped to a one-month low at 28,197 before recovering. Sideways trading above this low and below Tuesday's 29,805 high seems to be on the cards for Wednesday.

Were a rise above 29,805 to be seen, though, the 30,200 area may be revisited.

Short-term outlook: neutral while above 28,197

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9 June low at 28,197

Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart

USD/JPY remains above the ¥160.00 mark

USD/JPY continues its gradual advance - and trades in six week highs - whilst heading towards its April-to-May highs at  ¥160.46-to-¥160.72.

Potential support below the May-to-June uptrend line may be found around the mid-to-late April and late May ¥159.86-to-¥159.65 highs.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 3 June ¥159.37 low

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 20 May low at ¥158.59​

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

Brent crude resumes its descent

The price of Brent Crude is seen slipping for a second consecutive day and nears recent lows at $$89.65-to-$88.86 per barrel. Were these to give way, the early April low at $88.79 would likely also be fallen through with the April trough at $84.20 being in focus.

Minor resistance above last Friday's $91.75 low may be spotted in the $92.62-to-$94.63 region and more significant resistance at $96.94-to-$98.15, where the late May and current June highs meet.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the early June $98.15 high

Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 4 May high at $113.54 but above the 17 April $84.20 low

Brent crude daily candlestick chart