Nasdaq 100 trades in record highs despite Brent, USD/JPY rise
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it continues to trade in record highs despite Brent crude and USD/JPY advancing too..
Macro update
Global equities remain subdued ahead of key US inflation figures: Asian markets moved lower overnight and US futures slipped as investors weighed the stalled US-Iran negotiations alongside anticipation surrounding the upcoming US core PCE inflation release for further clues on Federal Reserve policy.
Oil prices jump as Middle East tensions escalate: Crude prices advanced sharply following renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, with reports of additional military action reviving fears over potential supply disruptions and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bond yields edge higher amid persistent inflation worries: Treasury yields continued to rise as stronger energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty reinforced expectations that central banks could keep interest rates higher for longer.
Dollar gains ground while yen remains under pressure: The US dollar strengthened on renewed safe-haven demand, while USD/JPY hovered near the 160 mark as yield differentials and policy divergence continued to weigh on the Japanese currency.
Wall Street rally loses momentum despite fresh highs: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at new record levels, although gains were restrained as investors balanced optimism around AI-led growth with concerns over geopolitics and rising bond yields.
Attention turns to upcoming US economic releases: Markets are now focused on US GDP revisions, weekly jobless claims and the core PCE inflation report, with investors expecting the data to play a key role in shaping near-term Federal Reserve expectations and overall market sentiment.
Nasdaq 100 trades in record highs
The Nasdaq 100 continues its ascent whilst flirting with the 30,000 region. The next potential technical upside target is the 100% extension of the April-to-October 2025 advance, projected higher from the March 2026 low at 32,481.
Potential support may be found around the mid-May 29,678 high.
Short-term outlook: bullish, targeting new record highs while above the 19 May low at 28,567
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 May low at 28,567
Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart
USD/JPY continues its advance
USD/JPY is trading in one-month highs and is seen gradually approaching the ¥160.00 region. First the cross needs to break through the ¥159.84-to-¥159.86 resistance area, though.
Potential support may be found at ¥159.35-to-¥159.25 ahead of ¥158.75-to-¥158.59.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 20 May ¥158.59 low
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 6 May low at ¥155.03
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent crude bounces back
Brent crude is seen bouncing off this week's $91.65 low. While it underpins, there remains the risk of the 22-to-26 May price gap at $97.72-to-$98.49 to get filled.
A fall through $91.65 would likely engage the 8 April low at $88.79, though.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 18 May $109.32 high
Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 4 May high at $113.54 but above the 17 April $84.20 low
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
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