Nasdaq 100 remains above support while USD/JPY stays bid and Brent crude slips
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it remains above support while USD/JPY stays bid and the price of Brent crude slips.
Macro update
Equities rebound on ceasefire hopes:
Asian stocks advanced, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 3% and regional markets gaining around 2%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% as reports of a US-led ceasefire proposal improved sentiment.
Oil drops on easing supply fears:
Brent crude oil declined around 4 - 5% towards $100 a barrel as ceasefire prospects raised hopes of restored Gulf exports, though prices remain roughly 35% higher since the conflict began.
Markets remain cautious:
Gains in equity futures were relatively modest, with investors wary of headline-driven volatility and uncertainty over whether US-Iran negotiations will produce a lasting agreement.
Bond yields edge lower:
US Treasury yields eased slightly, with 10-year yields near 4.35%, while rate markets continue to price further tightening in Europe, the UK, Japan and Australia despite geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold rises as dollar softens:
Gold gained more than 2% as the US dollar weakened and lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, with investors also scaling back expectations for additional US rate hikes.
Ongoing supply disruption and risks:
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained, Saudi exports are being rerouted, and continued military activity alongside stress in private credit markets is keeping overall risk sentiment fragile.
Nasdaq 100 hovers above support
The Nasdaq 100 is trying to gingerly advance but needs to overcome its 24 March high at 24,171 in order to revisit its key 24,289 - 24,465 resistance area which is likely to cap, at least short-term.
A fall through its 24 March low at 23,928 would push the current March low at 23,760 to the fore.
Short-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 23 March 24,465 high.
Medium-term outlook:
Bearish while below the 17 March high at 24,884.
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY remains bid
USD/JPY keeps pushing towards its current March high at ¥159.90 and the psychological ¥160.00 region with the ¥160.16 - ¥160.21 April 1990 to April 2024 highs remaining in sight.
The February to March uptrend line at ¥158.37 may offer support ahead of the 19 March low at ¥157.51.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 19 March ¥157.51 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish bias while above the 5 March low at ¥156.46.
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Brent range trades above support
The price of Brent crude oil is seen holding above this week's $92.62 low below which remains a price gap with the 11 March high at $91.59 which is expected to get filled.
A rise above the 24 March high at $101.08 may lead to the 23 March high at $110.29 being revisited, above which lies major resistance at $113.63 - $113.73. If exceeded, the June 2022 peak at $115.87 may be in sight.
Still further up lie the March to May 2022 highs at $120.02 - $120.29.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 23 March $92.62 low.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 10 March low at $79.74.
Brent crude daily candlestick chart
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