Gold hits fresh record above $4600 as Powell reveals Trump threats

​​​Gold surges to fresh record on safe-haven demand

​Gold blasted through $4600 an ounce to hit a new all-time high as investors scrambled for safety. The precious metal's rally reflects twin concerns: political interference in United States (US) monetary policy and escalating unrest in Iran.

​The metal's performance this year has been remarkable. Those who dismissed gold's appeal in an era of rising real yields have been proven wrong. Political uncertainty trumps traditional valuation metrics when markets get nervous.

​Powell revelation rattles equity markets

​Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell's disclosure that the Trump administration threatened him with criminal indictment sent shockwaves through financial markets. The revelation raised immediate questions about central bank independence, a cornerstone of modern monetary policy.

S&P 500 futures dropped roughly 0.5% following Powell's comments, with European equity futures also edging lower. The moves weren't dramatic, but they reflected genuine concern about the implications of political interference.

​Asian markets painted a mixed picture. Technology shares led gains in the region, though Japan remained shut for a holiday. This divergence suggests regional investors are weighing local factors alongside the Fed drama.

​The incident marks an escalation in tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed. Such political pressure on central bankers is rare in developed economies and typically associated with emerging market dysfunction.

​Dollar falls as Fed independence concerns mount

​The US dollar index fell approximately 0.3%, heading for its biggest daily decline since mid-December. The Swiss franc gained 0.4%, while the euro firmed near $1.17, reflecting a flight to currencies perceived as more insulated from US political turbulence.

​Fed funds futures priced in around three additional basis points of easing this year. While modest, this shift indicates concern that political pressure could force the Fed to cut rates faster than economic conditions warrant.

​The dollar's decline wasn't steep enough to suggest panic, but it does highlight how sensitive markets are to threats against Fed independence. Any further escalation could trigger more substantial currency moves.

​Iran tensions add to geopolitical risk premium

​Escalating unrest in Iran has kept geopolitical risks elevated, providing additional support for gold's record-breaking rally. The situation adds another layer of uncertainty to already jittery markets.

​Middle East tensions typically boost haven assets like gold and weigh on risk sentiment. The current episode follows this established pattern, with investors seeking protection against potential escalation.

​Oil markets have remained relatively stable despite the Iran situation, suggesting traders don't yet see major supply disruption risks. However, any deterioration could quickly change this calculus.

​Oil eases as focus shifts to data releases

Brent crude oil slipped to about $62.90 a barrel after recent gains, with traders taking profits ahead of key data releases. The modest pullback doesn't signal a change in trend, but rather reflects caution before this week's economic numbers.

​Oil markets have been relatively stable despite broader market jitters. Supply dynamics remain supportive, with OPEC+ maintaining production discipline. Demand concerns persist but haven't yet triggered a selloff.

​The focus now shifts to US inflation data and China trade figures due this week. These releases could provide fresh direction for oil prices, particularly if they reveal unexpected weakness in demand.

​Oxford Nanopore beats expectations

​Away from macro concerns, Oxford Nanopore delivered encouraging results. The biotech group expects full-year revenue of £223 - 224 million, up roughly 22% and slightly ahead of guidance.

​Growth came from broad-based gains across regions, end markets and products. This diversification should please investors worried about over-reliance on any single revenue stream.

​The company remains well capitalised with around £302 million of cash. Management said it continues making progress towards profitability, a key milestone for a growth-stage technology company.

​Week ahead: inflation data and bank earnings

​Markets face a packed calendar this week. US inflation figures will be scrutinised for signs that price pressures are easing. Any surprise could amplify volatility given the current focus on Fed policy.

​China trade data will provide insight into the world's second-largest economy. Weak numbers would add to concerns about global growth, potentially weighing on risk assets and supporting safe havens.

​US bank earnings kick off this week, offering a window into the health of corporate America. Results from major lenders typically set the tone for the broader earnings season.