FTSE 100, USD/JPY dip while silver price rises on US tariff uncertainty
Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 and USD/JPY as they give back recent gains while the silver price rises on US tariff uncertainty.
Macro update
Wall Street futures retreat on tariff uncertainty:
S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.0%, unwinding Friday’s gains following the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs.
Tariff confusion revives ‘Sell America’ trade:
The Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs, prompting him to propose a blanket 15% levy, injecting fresh uncertainty into trade policy and the growth outlook.
Dollar softens amid policy uncertainty:
The US dollar slipped 0.4% against the Japanese yen and 0.5% versus the Swiss franc, while the euro and sterling gained around 0.3 - 0.4% as investors reassessed the implications of limits on US tariff authority.
Asian markets mixed as tariff outlook shifts:
MSCI’s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index rose 0.9% in light trading, with South Korea up 0.5% and Taiwan gaining 1.2% to record highs, as some analysts suggested effective US tariff rates could ease in the near term.
Oil dips ahead of US-Iran talks:
Brent crude oil fell about 1.3% to $70.84 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $65.61 as traders looked ahead to a third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva, tempering immediate fears of escalation.
Gold supported as rate-cut odds adjust:
Gold climbed 1.1% to $5159 an ounce and silver rose 3.2%, while markets priced roughly a 52% chance of a June Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut following mixed US growth and inflation data.
FTSE 100 comes off record highs
Last week the FTSE 100 hit yet another record high and rose to 10,745 on news that the US Supreme Court struck off the US administration's global tariffs via a law reserved for national emergencies. On the same day President Trump imposed a global 10% tariff though, and the following day raised this to 15%, creating uncertainty in financial markets.
This uncertainty provoked risk-off sentiment, but in case of the FTSE 100, only mildly so for now.
A slip through Friday's 10,639 low may put the February uptrend line at 10,583 on the cards.
A rise above 10,745 may lead to the 11,000 region being eyed.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 17 February low at 10,442.
Medium-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 6 February low at 10,211.
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY slips
USD/JPY's recent ascent to ¥155.64 has been followed by a slip to ¥154.00. Were this level to give way, the mid-November low at ¥153.62 would be in view, ahead of the late January to February lows at ¥152.27 - ¥152.10.
Were a rise above last week's high at ¥154.00 to unfold, the 5 January low at ¥156.12 would represent the next technical upside target.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 12 February low at ¥152.27.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above the January low at ¥152.10 but below the ¥159.42 January peak.
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Silver rallies
Heightened Iran-US tensions - now tempered - have briefly propelled the silver price to a two-week high at $87.8331. If bettered, the 21 January low to 4 February high at $90.3354 - $92.2049 may be reached next.
Immediate support comes in between the late December to 7 January high at $84.0301 - $82.7706.
Short-term outlook:
Bullish while above the 20 February low at $77.4715.
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish bias while above the 17 February low at $91.9773.
Silver daily candlestick chart
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